tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post1612128997520102796..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: The Housing Collapse Continues!Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-53281034029564992072008-12-24T13:09:00.000-08:002008-12-24T13:09:00.000-08:00GrowlerCould be.I heard something interesting abou...Growler<BR/><BR/>Could be.<BR/><BR/>I heard something interesting about the bullish headline today that mortgage applications were up 48%.<BR/><BR/>Only 15% of the applications are getting funded. Many of these apps are from people that are underwater in their house. there is no way a bank is going to refi any mortgage unless it appraises for the amount on the loan.<BR/><BR/>Many of these underwater folks also attempted multiple refi's with several banks. This makes that number even more irrelevant.<BR/><BR/>Take this 48% rise news with a grain of salt.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-65351318393473682372008-12-24T10:10:00.000-08:002008-12-24T10:10:00.000-08:00Check out Volume on SRS from Nov. to present. Loo...Check out Volume on SRS from Nov. to present. Looks like many are thinking the same thing. <BR/><BR/><BR/>(Perhaps base building?)Growlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15157589177057003376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-65584407830238331492008-12-24T08:39:00.000-08:002008-12-24T08:39:00.000-08:00JohnAgreedI am very bullish long term on SRS.Any p...John<BR/><BR/>Agreed<BR/><BR/>I am very bullish long term on SRS.<BR/><BR/>Any pop on a bailout will be quickly sold. <BR/><BR/>I just think if there is a bailout, you will see a quick pullback on SRS on the news which will setup a beautiful entry point.<BR/><BR/>If it doesn't look like its going to happen I will be buying more.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-74994213699597039092008-12-24T08:36:00.000-08:002008-12-24T08:36:00.000-08:00ZmonThanks for the link. Housing in 2009 looks pr...Zmon<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the link. Housing in 2009 looks pretty bleak in our area!<BR/><BR/>Happy Holidays!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-73688962965760399332008-12-24T02:16:00.000-08:002008-12-24T02:16:00.000-08:00Jeff,meanwhile I see a CRE bailout pretty bullish ...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>meanwhile I see a CRE bailout pretty bullish for SRS. Any company tapping TARP will have to slash their divi. More <I>divi holidays</I> on the horizon for long-term investors.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-70933983475459974432008-12-24T01:55:00.000-08:002008-12-24T01:55:00.000-08:00Jeff,I meant to link to the November 2008 Maryland...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>I meant to link to the November 2008 Maryland Housing Statistics (broken down by area) in my last post.<BR/><BR/>http://www.scribd.com/doc/8943686/Maryland-Housing-Statistics-November-2008ZMonethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670008443747072461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-31637122000207566322008-12-23T21:01:00.000-08:002008-12-23T21:01:00.000-08:00avlGreat to hear from you my friend. I am glad yo...avl<BR/><BR/>Great to hear from you my friend. I am glad you had safe travels.<BR/><BR/>Great great article.<BR/><BR/>Its amazing how responsible a lender becomes when they have to hold onto a loan. I totally agree with subprime as long as risk is managed!<BR/><BR/>This type of risk management will be the new world on Wall St and its going to force home prices to tumble.<BR/><BR/>Once responsible lending resumes(20% down 36% DTI) lending will become profitable again. The problem is housing must tumble in price before people can qualify for loans under such standards.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for sharing!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-57641070330027665492008-12-23T19:24:00.000-08:002008-12-23T19:24:00.000-08:00Hey Jeff, I’m slowly getting back up to speed afte...Hey Jeff, I’m slowly getting back up to speed after dashing 1/3rd of the way across the country during a short window of good weather. Lost to the media & policymakers who can't think outside-the-box is the good news that the seeds of almost every aspect of a 'new' recovery of the economy are now in place. It will be clearer once debt deleveraging and deflation have run their course (if the Feds ever let that happen), and the economy hits and wanders the bottom of the crater. Then the economy can be poised to re-boot into something that is more financially sustainable than the nonsense of the last boom or the 25-yr consumer spending cycle and 25-yr secular bull market that have run their course and reached their effective lifespan.<BR/><BR/>The new lending model has been around for decades. Newsweek ran a piece last month on how the categories of lenders, CDFIs, have successfully and ethically used higher-than-prime rates to serve less-than-prime (and aint we all becoming ‘Less Than Prime”?) borrowers. I use to manage lending for a CDFI. See synopsis and link.<BR/><BR/><BR/>A Risk Worth Taking<BR/>Many ethical subprime lenders still manage to make plenty of money.<BR/>Like a bunch of present-day George Baileys, ethical subprime lenders evaluate applications carefully, don't pay brokers big fees to rope customers into high-interest loans and mostly hold onto the loans they make rather than reselling them.<BR/>Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK From the magazine issue dated Nov 24, 2008<BR/>www.newsweek.com/id/169160Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-79726638013074666462008-12-23T19:14:00.000-08:002008-12-23T19:14:00.000-08:00GrowlerThanks!always appreciate the feedbackGrowler<BR/><BR/>Thanks!<BR/><BR/>always appreciate the feedbackJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-11357462024800563492008-12-23T18:09:00.000-08:002008-12-23T18:09:00.000-08:00As always, great info / analysis Jeff!As always, great info / analysis Jeff!Growlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15157589177057003376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-85792776850707409662008-12-23T18:07:00.000-08:002008-12-23T18:07:00.000-08:00GreenWelcome!Thanks for the heads up.We were discu...Green<BR/><BR/>Welcome!<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the heads up.<BR/><BR/>We were discussing this on the last post. SDS was down $10 on the pro share cap gains. <BR/><BR/>JJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-18199574372524323882008-12-23T17:44:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:44:00.000-08:00just in case you guys didn't realize, there was a ...just in case you guys didn't realize, there was a capital gains distribution issued to SRS shareholders for $4.57. The price will always drop automatically by this ammount in the morning.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-78111016066888099492008-12-23T17:37:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:37:00.000-08:00JohnNo one knows whether or not we will see a bail...John<BR/><BR/>No one knows whether or not we will see a bailout. As a result, investors are simply avoiding SRS. <BR/><BR/>The way the Fed's been bailing everyone else out, I would think it would be silly to think they would not bailout commercial too.<BR/><BR/>I have a small position in there and I plan to hold it.<BR/><BR/>I think its 50/50 that commercial gets some help from the Fed. Trade this one on the news. Buy it on the drop if commercial does get some form of a bailout.<BR/><BR/>GLJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-12401150385737316872008-12-23T17:32:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:32:00.000-08:00ZmonI live in MD. Baltimore is in big trouble bec...Zmon<BR/><BR/>I live in MD. Baltimore is in big trouble because they have similiar housing prices compared to DC without the jobs or income.<BR/><BR/>The neighborhood where I live has seen 30% price declines in the last year. DC/BAlmtimore has a long way to go on the downside.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the inventory information. Thats very helpful and horryfying! 34 months. OMG!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-63971849590134436522008-12-23T17:25:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:25:00.000-08:00SRS will take a moonshot once the Fed and the TARP...<I>SRS will take a moonshot once the Fed and the TARP answer their formal request for funds.</I><BR/><BR/>What do you mean, Jeff? Are you expecting a bailout or not? Or do you think it doesn't matter what the FED will decide?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-53010557284759715322008-12-23T17:13:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:13:00.000-08:00Jeff,Did you see Fortune Magazine's prediction tha...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>Did you see Fortune Magazine's prediction that the DC Metro area will see a nearly 19.9% decline in 2009? DC Metro was #10 on the list, but the other 9 were comprised of California (8) and Miami, FL.<BR/><BR/>Also, I was looking at the months of supply on the market in Maryland and was shocked by the number of months of inventory for Anne Arundel County (15 months). Although I know there aren't that many transactions in the county, Calvert County had 34 months worth of inventory! (up from 17 months the prior month -- doubling inventory in one month!) Looks like parts of Maryland are about to see what parts of Virginia have already seen in terms of price correction.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the advice on SRS, I got knocked out on a trade trigger at a 15% gain (better than a loss). I'm now looking for a new entry point in. So hard to predict the market in the short term, but I guess you put your moves on for the long term and play from there.ZMonethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670008443747072461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-50306136412078406512008-12-23T17:01:00.000-08:002008-12-23T17:01:00.000-08:00As long as a potential bailout hangs over SRS, I d...As long as a potential bailout hangs over SRS, I don't think you will see much price action.<BR/><BR/>SRS will take a moonshot once the Fed and the TARP answer their formal request for funds.\<BR/><BR/>Kudlow is reporting that we could see a dividend holiday on all banks.<BR/><BR/>That could really push FAZ to the upside. Those housing numbers were depression like.<BR/><BR/>Yikes!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-44598897178661395772008-12-23T16:33:00.000-08:002008-12-23T16:33:00.000-08:00Interesting article on Reuters:Stores to ramp up c...Interesting article on Reuters:<BR/><A HREF="http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4BM40U20081223" REL="nofollow">Stores to ramp up closings and job cuts in early '09</A><BR/><BR/>A little teaser:<BR/><I>"We are going to see some shakeout in the retail industry and I think it's going to happen pretty quickly after the holidays," said Frank Badillo, senior economist with consultant TNS Retail Forward. "We'll see it in the form of store closings, mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcy."</I><BR/><BR/>Could help your game plan for early next year regarding CRE and your little SRSes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-63158149929811193812008-12-23T16:23:00.000-08:002008-12-23T16:23:00.000-08:00You're in a great mood, Jeff. Very bad news for ho...You're in a great mood, Jeff. Very bad news for housing today but SRS was basically flat. So it was actually bullish. Hope there will be more aggressive bears showing up next year when holiday season is over.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com