tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post1799252582756693929..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: We Need Capitulation!Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-30191033217432010192008-10-07T16:34:00.000-07:002008-10-07T16:34:00.000-07:00zmonet, I took 90+% of my retirement out of equiti...zmonet, I took 90+% of my retirement out of equities in May, and disciplined myself to re-evaluate that decision every 90 days. By May it was clear that Nourial Roubini's scenarios were far more likely to unfold than not, and that Mish's Deflation thesis was on spot; a double-doomsday long-term for equities.<BR/>My 'inner-idiot', though shrunken, is still evident in the almost 10% I left in equities. Im also sitting on my play money after a goofy ride with RIMM & GOOG in Winter.<BR/>My line of work is greatly affected by Roubini's & Mish's thesis. I am & will remain exploring ways to design special-use public-private commercial projects to be compatible with the funding 'solutions' pushed by the next administration, so I'm focusing my brain cells on trajectory scenarios for certain real estate & labor markets based on Roubini and Mish Shedlock ideas.Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-34424627097419518612008-10-07T15:22:00.000-07:002008-10-07T15:22:00.000-07:00Its comin..lol I had a busy day. Always happens ...Its comin..lol I had a busy day. Always happens when the market tanks!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-40517212146034303762008-10-07T14:31:00.000-07:002008-10-07T14:31:00.000-07:00Chain od fools ;)http://www.thedeal.com/newsweekly...Chain od fools ;)<BR/><BR/>http://www.thedeal.com/newsweekly/features/chain-of-fools.phpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-71949628086330939472008-10-07T13:46:00.000-07:002008-10-07T13:46:00.000-07:00Jeff, we are waiting.... LOLJeff, we are waiting.... LOLAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-30997514015405380992008-10-07T13:08:00.000-07:002008-10-07T13:08:00.000-07:00I took the lead of some of the rest of you and clo...I took the lead of some of the rest of you and closed out my position on QID at the close today. I figured being up 25% in two and a half days and the fact that I really do think this market is way too volatile to trade.<BR/><BR/>Jeff, It sounds like you have a trading account (as do I), but for your retirement account(s) (i.e., 401(k), TSP, or whatever) have you moved those into securities or are those still in the stock market? What about the rest of you? I'm just wondering how long-term bearish you guys are.<BR/><BR/>I extended my lease another year today. With this newest downturn, I can't see real estate coming back in VA/DC/MD for some time. I'll end my lease at the beginning of 2010 and hope that interest rates aren't through the roof, or if they are that housing has been hammered down.ZMonethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670008443747072461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-45556188993540728532008-10-07T10:32:00.000-07:002008-10-07T10:32:00.000-07:00FYIThe comments section will now be moderated goin...FYI<BR/><BR/>The comments section will now be moderated going forward.<BR/><BR/>There may be a delay in seeing your posts if I am not at my computer. They will be posted immediately if online.<BR/><BR/>I apologize for the delay, but I need to do this in order to keep the integrity of the board and keep the looney tunes outta here.<BR/><BR/>JJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-89143366590059144522008-10-07T10:26:00.000-07:002008-10-07T10:26:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-77440081333139538692008-10-07T09:31:00.000-07:002008-10-07T09:31:00.000-07:00I agree LogThats my thesis too. I actually went f...I agree Log<BR/><BR/>Thats my thesis too. I actually went flat this morning on my trading account except for a few small position in short fund that I have held since DOW 14k.<BR/><BR/>I expect a massive Fed response to this mess which I believe will fail miserably. <BR/><BR/>It looks like they plan on injecting capital into companies while also buying short term commercial paper in an attempt to loosen up the credit markets.<BR/><BR/>This could fuel a short term rally so I decided to get out of the way short term.<BR/><BR/>Things look to be shitting the bed again so maybe that wasn't a good idea! It can never hurt to take profits though. <BR/><BR/>I was up 30-40% on my positions and that Bear Stearns rally still haunts me..lol <BR/><BR/>Lets see what the market does in response to the FED minutes and Bernanke's speech.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-3908038297208545372008-10-07T09:19:00.000-07:002008-10-07T09:19:00.000-07:00Jeff,I take a more drastic belief than most. I st...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>I take a more drastic belief than most. I still don't think we are even close to market bottom. I think the market will "chill out" for a little while and go back up to around 11,000, and then the big leg down will start... all the way down to 6,000 or 7,000. <BR/><BR/>I really do think the market will go down that far! And, I think the final week of downward movement (before the reversal) will be huge... maybe 2,000 points negative in one week.Happy Dinerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12328873029767201244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-34340744650266604352008-10-07T08:03:00.000-07:002008-10-07T08:03:00.000-07:00Not a whole heck of a lot going on this morning. ...Not a whole heck of a lot going on this morning. <BR/><BR/>I will have something up later after Bernanke's testimony.<BR/><BR/>Europe continues to blow up. RBS=ugly!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-27924061509373140992008-10-07T05:45:00.000-07:002008-10-07T05:45:00.000-07:00LogTotally agree. I think we are getting there bu...Log<BR/><BR/>Totally agree. I think we are getting there but we are still not there yet.<BR/><BR/>Futures reversed into the red this morning when the Fed announced more TAF auctions.<BR/><BR/>I think the market was expecting some type of sticksave.<BR/><BR/>Lets see if they come out with something later. Today is a potential bounce day because we are way oversold.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-69810934019021702342008-10-07T05:30:00.000-07:002008-10-07T05:30:00.000-07:00When bulls are on their knees begging for mercy an...When bulls are on their knees begging for mercy and the bears are beating their chests in victory...<BR/><BR/>When there's blood on the streets and people swear the markets are never going to go up again...<BR/><BR/>That's when we'll reach bottom and experience the market reversal.Happy Dinerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12328873029767201244noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-73722245707567185862008-10-06T20:18:00.000-07:002008-10-06T20:18:00.000-07:00JDI agree with you on metals and oil. Whats diffi...JD<BR/><BR/>I agree with you on metals and oil. Whats difficult to determine is how much of this is liquidations by the hedge funds for redemptions.<BR/><BR/>Oil broke support today technically. We also have a global deflationary recession which could take prices lower. <BR/><BR/>Tough one JD<BR/><BR/>Good luck. I have a sticksave feeling about tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>It looks like the Fed might try to use the CME to clear CDS trades in an attempt to loosen up the credit markets.<BR/><BR/>Lots of rumours tonight. The Fed seems willing to try anything and seems to be in a panic.<BR/><BR/>Tomorrow should be interesting.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-17578654715846087582008-10-06T20:03:00.000-07:002008-10-06T20:03:00.000-07:00seriously, commodities prices are all screwed up; ...seriously, commodities prices are all screwed up; clearly under government jurisdiction. go ahead and try to buy an ounce of platinum bullion right now. go on, i dare ya! you cant. there aint any! i just bought a slew of platinum dimes, I figure eventually this stuff is going to correct severely upwards. I really like silver prices now too,...again, no bullion, except $5 plus over spot. So these prices are manufactured and do not reflect the true market, as you say avl, oil/ gas too. I think its all a manipulation to keep commodities down so "they" can grab 'em up dirt cheap. gold isn't, but the others are. paper assets are worse than ever now.johndanielshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12826656236555940567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-27630790895084231172008-10-06T18:00:00.000-07:002008-10-06T18:00:00.000-07:00TeddyDon't forget your 6 shooter if you decide to ...Teddy<BR/><BR/>Don't forget your 6 shooter if you decide to jump in the snake pit tomorrow!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-36186435290207695592008-10-06T17:57:00.000-07:002008-10-06T17:57:00.000-07:00avlYeah cleaned things up a little around here. We...avl<BR/><BR/>Yeah cleaned things up a little around here. Welcome to the internet!<BR/><BR/>Wow tough times in NC eh? God what will Charlotte do without banking. Maybe that will be the next Detroit? Its dangerous when your throw all of your resources behind one industry.<BR/><BR/>Are you able to get gas somewhere down there? Thats crazy! I have hardly heard anything about that. Good luck with everything.<BR/><BR/>My sister wants to move to Asheville. Maybe thats not a good idea!<BR/><BR/>switching topics myself<BR/><BR/>Anyone notice the Nikkei dropped below the DOW tonight? It actaully dropped into the 9k+ level down 5%. I think its down only 350 right now.<BR/><BR/>The race to 5k. Who wins Japan or America? <BR/><BR/>Crazy times aren't they?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-72258660090303023992008-10-06T17:54:00.000-07:002008-10-06T17:54:00.000-07:00Uhh.. yeaaahhhh Wicki-wild wild Wicki-wicki-wildWi...Uhh.. yeaaahhhh<BR/> <BR/>Wicki-wild wild <BR/>Wicki-wicki-wild<BR/>Wicki-wild<BR/>Wicki-wicki Wild Wild West <BR/><BR/>:D<BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_a-HZbxmCEAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-4598884544301303102008-10-06T17:47:00.000-07:002008-10-06T17:47:00.000-07:00Hey Jeff, I’m back.Finally cleaning up your 'n...Hey Jeff, I’m back.<BR/>Finally cleaning up your 'neighborhood', eh?<BR/>Good stuff post again. You know my position on the over-valued Dow and S&P [shoulda stayed down today], asset deflation and debt unwind so I guess I wasn’t missed last week. <BR/>Going off topic now....We are STILL having a gas problem here; most stations today were opened tho many pumps remain wrapped in plastic. Since Hurricane Ike in TX, we've had at least two 24-hr periods where not a SINGLE gas station in the city limits had gas, ditto, for a fat chunk of the 4-county 370K-person metro. Long lines, fights or cuss words and panic tears.<BR/>Now I'm also monitoring how Charlotte, 100 miles east, is tag-teamed whacked with the Wachovia Free-4-All and IMO the inevitable departure of King Ken Lewis and his Royal BofA Court (its exec payrolls) to the throne room awaiting him on Wall Street.<BR/>They of course are in denial in Charlotte that he will leave.<BR/>Ive learned a lot about how citizens, and local leaders & biz owners, alternate between denial & inaction & panic when it comes to 1) severe energy shortages and 2) facing the loss of your economic lifeblood. Charlotte's is its banking payroll. Asheville's is gas-dependent tourism whose greatest revenue season is right now - the Fall leaf color season, which entails - what else - gassing up a car, driving 100s of miles to view color changes on 4,000-6,500-ft peaks, gassing up more & driving more.<BR/>And we still have gas stations closed-off by yellow tape?? Economic death by a thousand pin pricks might be more humane.<BR/>So lucky me, I am living & witnessing three historic events: the meltdown of Wall Street, of Charlotte’s banking payrolls and of Asheville’s gas-dependent tourism.<BR/>Maybe I’ll get a book deal outta my notes.Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-45568328203690699442008-10-06T16:51:00.000-07:002008-10-06T16:51:00.000-07:00JDThanks.The financial TV stations are crazy aren'...JD<BR/><BR/>Thanks.<BR/><BR/>The financial TV stations are crazy aren't they?<BR/><BR/>I am listening to Kudlow right now trying to bring "goldilocks" back from the dead.<BR/><BR/>Its gonna be a long time until this market turns bullish long term. <BR/><BR/>I agree with the short covering rally. A lot of day traders covered and went long when we were down 800.<BR/><BR/>The investors are sitting on the sidelines right now. The only people left playing the markets are a bunch of daredevil traders and hedge funds.<BR/><BR/>Its like the wild wild west. lolJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-71097736130836259252008-10-06T16:20:00.000-07:002008-10-06T16:20:00.000-07:00I believe everything you said. I was on the phone ...I believe everything you said. I was on the phone this morning before I visited your blog and told her "we need capitulation.." its funny that all the intelligent blogs are all basically coming from the same "mass mind" relizations. There is something here, and its truth...not the crap they spin on MSNBC etc. they're even trying to call a bottom here, lol. On what? Why would someone invest, and with who? the only ones in there are the compulsive gamblers. I think the rally must have been short covering. I was disappointed by the comeback too; but it means whatever recovery rally we always get the "day after" will be dilluted. im am just watching the tanking oil prices very closely here, and even looked at POT. going to wait.johndanielshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12826656236555940567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-26560913047702313552008-10-06T15:56:00.000-07:002008-10-06T15:56:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-2550924019317557352008-10-06T15:51:00.000-07:002008-10-06T15:51:00.000-07:00Exactly ZmonShort term volatility can wipe out you...Exactly Zmon<BR/><BR/>Short term volatility can wipe out your account.<BR/><BR/>It could be weeks until capitulation occurs. Taking new bets in oversold conditions hoping for capitulation is not the best of bets.<BR/><BR/>I have some long term short positons that I will continue to hold.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-11554022069686462152008-10-06T15:45:00.000-07:002008-10-06T15:45:00.000-07:00I think I understand exactly what he is saying. T...I think I understand exactly what he is saying. There is so much volatility in the market that unless you trade without stops then you could realize large losses. Even if you trade without stops, there could be a short-term game changer, like coordinated rate cuts or something similar. Remember, in the Great Depression there was a very large bounce back where the DOW got back to around 300 before crashing all the way down to 44 by a year later. Is there money to be made? Yes, but at great risk and at this point you would be little more than gambling.ZMonethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07670008443747072461noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-76761391027321417032008-10-06T15:00:00.000-07:002008-10-06T15:00:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com