tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post4570980871987253453..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Could Deflation be a Blessing in Disguise?Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-18125876684877638032010-05-25T16:52:26.560-07:002010-05-25T16:52:26.560-07:00Whatever dude.
You have nothing better to do than...Whatever dude.<br /><br />You have nothing better to do than to come on someone's blog and write comments like that on a monthly basis.<br /><br />You either own a shitload of real estate in DC or you have no life.<br /><br />Have seen your types around here before and I could care less. Thanks for boosting my traffic!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-75841188590600156132010-05-25T16:36:09.232-07:002010-05-25T16:36:09.232-07:00"Jeff said...
You drop will be delayed but i..."Jeff said...<br /><br />You drop will be delayed but it's still inevitable. <br /><br />I will be here chuckling when it happens."<br /><br />Actually, I will be the one laughing. Its interesting to see what tact you take in the months and years ahead. As it stands right now, DC is at 175.3 (up 5.3% YOY, but I dont expect that to last).<br /><br />By the end of this year, it should be obvious to even you that Case Shiller DC hitting 125 or below, is a massive pipe dream - not gonna happen.<br /><br />The question then is, what do you do? Do you succumb to all the monthly needling from me, and finally admit you were wrong? If so, hopefully I will lose interest in you, and that will be that.<br /><br />The other possibility is that you become obstinate - stubornly refusing to admit you were wrong, and insisting "it just hasnt happened...yet"? I personally hope this is the case because I will enjoy pointing out to your audience every month how utterly foolish your advice and instincts really are.<br /><br />The third option is you just roll up shop alltogether. After years of being verbally abused on a monthly basis, you may be simply too proud to eat the shit sandwich and admit you were wrong. Instead, you may just take your whole site and hit a button and "poof" suddenly its gone. <br /><br />It will be interesting to see which tact you take. Mark my words however, you will take one of these as you are quite wrong in believing CS DC will ever hit 125 or below again - and I will be there each and every month, laughing at you.<br /><br />Have a nice day!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-46009280872195925472010-05-25T16:24:18.076-07:002010-05-25T16:24:18.076-07:00"Jeff said...
You drop will be delayed but i..."Jeff said...<br /><br />You drop will be delayed but it's still inevitable. <br /><br />I will be here chuckling when it happens."<br /><br />Actually, it will be me who is here laughing. Not this month, or really any time this year (despite the fact that Case Shiller DC is at 175.3 up +5.63% YOY, I dont expect that to last). <br /><br />Instead it will be in the years ahead as DC continues to firm up far far above the CS value of 125. Each and every month, it will be harder and harder for you to hold on to that permabearish view of yours.<br /><br />The question then is, when, if ever, do you come out and admit, "I was wrong" about DC? If you do it early, hopefully I will lose interest in you and quit showing your audience how utterly horrendous your advice and instincts can be.<br /><br />If you do it late, and continue to stubbornly insist, "it just hasnt happened --- yet", I will be here, pointing out how wrong you are, each and every month, for years and years to come, as the CS value of 125 looks farther and farther away. <br /><br />At that point, you will look foolish for refusing to take a bit out of the shit sandwich for so long. At that point, I would give you 50/50 odds of simply rolling up your site altogether, than to admit you were wrong. <br /><br />It will be interesting to see which path you take. Do you admit you were wrong now, or later, or do you just go poof and disappear altogether. Mark my words though, you are quite wrong on this one, and rest asured, I will be here, checking in once a month, laughing at you the whole way. See you next month!!!<br /><br />The other optionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-45565797573837169682010-05-24T20:34:22.279-07:002010-05-24T20:34:22.279-07:00Get
I will send you the link to update.
Google ...Get <br /><br />I will send you the link to update.<br /><br />Google invited me a few months ago for an upgrade. I only recently had time to update it.<br /><br />Wow Futes are BLOODY.<br /><br />ES -15 Yikes!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-60130714189103165922010-05-24T17:12:10.824-07:002010-05-24T17:12:10.824-07:00I dunno Jeff, NY metro and DC are different animla...I dunno Jeff, NY metro and DC are different animlas because the "important" peole live there. Maybe it will work out better for them and at least they will all be concentrated in a few places and leave the rest of us alone.<br /><br />I do love the new look, now I am jealous.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-59090713302716226032010-05-24T16:53:03.051-07:002010-05-24T16:53:03.051-07:00You real estate guys crack me up.
Whenever you al...You real estate guys crack me up.<br /><br />Whenever you all get riled up around defending housing in places like DC I know housing is about to roll over again..LOL<br /><br />This isn't the first time. Loans in DC are still mostly jumbo's and if it wasn't for the government you guys would be another Florida or Vegas by now.<br /><br />You drop will be delayed but it's still inevitable. <br /><br />I will be here chuckling when it happens.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-9022000397790215422010-05-24T16:48:13.269-07:002010-05-24T16:48:13.269-07:00Get
Like it?
Figured I would change it up.
Anon...Get<br /><br />Like it?<br /><br />Figured I would change it up.<br /><br />Anon<br /><br />Yep gold and dollars for me.<br /><br />Futes way down again. Refuse to short the hole here. Hoping for one last bounce before I buy some PUT's.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-65984383351652622822010-05-24T15:43:18.397-07:002010-05-24T15:43:18.397-07:00re: annony:
of course theres a chance. like a fal...re: annony:<br /><br />of course theres a chance. like a false flag nuclear attack on washington DC.. you know, they have one buried under the capitalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-32721169591192190412010-05-24T15:42:25.379-07:002010-05-24T15:42:25.379-07:00Wow Jeff, great new look to the site! Very nice.Wow Jeff, great new look to the site! Very nice.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-22832652824364909732010-05-24T15:41:26.848-07:002010-05-24T15:41:26.848-07:00agree, deflation is a real threat, and holding dol...agree, deflation is a real threat, and holding dollars is the hedge against deflation, and gold is the hedge on dollars. thus, dollar up, gold up. the extreme hedge, and no one want to languish in equity now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-88105440274253669942010-05-24T12:28:31.808-07:002010-05-24T12:28:31.808-07:00"I want you to listen to me. There is not a c..."I want you to listen to me. There is not a chance in the world that DC housing drops another 30-40% on a nominal basis. No chance - none."<br /><br />Hehe ok tough guy.<br /><br />I will save this quote in the archives.<br /><br />Let's see what housing does when interest rates hits double digits.<br /><br />Our yields are thriving now because Europe is running to safety here in treasuries but its temporary.<br /><br />It's only a matter of time that the world realizes we are nothing but another Greece.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-3052549104962009022010-05-24T11:51:10.707-07:002010-05-24T11:51:10.707-07:00On May 20, Jeff said...
"If rates move highe...On May 20, Jeff said...<br /><br />"If rates move higher I wouldn't be suprised to see a 30-40% correction or possibly more.<br /><br />If they stay around these levels I still think you will see a 30% correction but its going to take a lot longer to get there.<br /><br />DC got really outta hand and many loans out there are jumbo loans due to the high prices in real estate."<br /><br />I want you to listen to me. There is not a chance in the world that DC housing drops another 30-40% on a nominal basis. No chance - none.<br /><br />If DC fell 30% from where it is now, Case Shiller would hit 125 or so. Are you so naive that you really think Case Shiller (DC) ever hits 125 again?<br /><br />Case Shiller for DC bottomed out at 165.93 last year. At best, you might see a nominal drop of 5-7% from those levels, hitting a value of 155.<br /><br />So thats the issue then - You say DC case shiller will hit 125 or less, I say you will be lucky to ever see 155 ever again. One of us will be horribly and spectacularly wrong. Given your recent track record, I suspect it will be you.<br /><br />Have fun eating crow!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com