tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post5543724205320634040..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Americans are Running out of OptionsJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-65274162757441807092009-09-09T14:51:43.400-07:002009-09-09T14:51:43.400-07:00Great thoughts all
This casino keeps rising and t...Great thoughts all<br /><br />This casino keeps rising and the dollar keeps falling.<br /><br />At some point this trend will reverse. The dollar can olny drop so much before the markets shits itself(oops did I really say that?) :)Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-77487275279462647542009-09-09T10:49:46.650-07:002009-09-09T10:49:46.650-07:00I think Krugman's whole thesis boils down to t...I think Krugman's whole thesis boils down to there being no single framework that can model the economy and silly adherence to bad models got us into this mess.<br /><br />On the other hand, I can not model or explain how fish goes rotten, but given a piece of rotten fish, I can very quickly determine the state it is in.<br /><br />When I saw a show on HGTV about morons flipping a house in California and finding someone to pay $750k for an old 1000 ft^2 house with granite counter tops I was able to quickly determine that something smelled very very wrong.Herbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09778090152799165490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-79204099066810301372009-09-09T10:04:45.999-07:002009-09-09T10:04:45.999-07:00I disagree with Paul Krugman's solution, but h...I disagree with Paul Krugman's solution, but he does a fair enough job explaining how every economist 'missed it' in the NYT over the weekend:<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=krugman&st=cseflipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-73554037948648308072009-09-09T10:02:42.902-07:002009-09-09T10:02:42.902-07:00Anon-
I disagree about the tech bubble. There wa...Anon-<br /><br />I disagree about the tech bubble. There was an idea underpinning it, which was the cost of technology had come down and advanced sufficiently it would transform every industry while becoming one in its own right.<br /><br />If you look at stock valuations and fallout from the bubble bursting, then yes, it was a colossal bubble. But it did change everything about our world and our economy and continues to do so. And during that time, there was record low unemployment and for a lot of people, wages and productivity were up.<br /><br />This bubble (if we call it that) has no fundamental drivers. The markets are frothing while the economy is rotting. The fundamentals and the markets are literally running in opposite directons.<br /><br />For this reason, many like myself are left scratching our heads.flipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-49082595933190069702009-09-09T07:36:28.987-07:002009-09-09T07:36:28.987-07:00Just remember how long it takes for reality to set...Just remember how long it takes for reality to set in. I find myself thinking back to the tech bubble when for years the tech stocks kept climbing and everyone knew it was all hot air but yet no one wanted to be left out so they bought which pushed them even higher until the big players pulled out and then the bagholders threw in the towel. I think that is what is going on today, we all know that everything is being artificially propped up by the government and the market keeps trading higher so more people are going to move in because they believe the market is a true barometer of the true economy. I would be a buyer when I know the government is out of this and starts shoring up our country's balance sheet and co.s and the econ are improving on thier own merits.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-68914537954197966142009-09-08T21:23:48.829-07:002009-09-08T21:23:48.829-07:00Herb
I think its because they work for firms that...Herb<br /><br />I think its because they work for firms that have a huge self interest in seeing stocks move higher.<br /><br />There are some good ones like Rosenberg but they are few and far between.<br /><br />I like Shiller too. He talks a lot about the pschology behind bubbles. I think this could be applied to this most recent surge in equities.<br /><br />Greed has taken over most people's rationelle when it comes to investing. They will get burned once again like they always do.<br /><br />Everyone is trying to play the "recovery" that they are convinced is coming like it always have since the early '80's.<br /><br />The problem is it IS different this time. We have created huge craters that will take years if not decades to heal. We have spent 11 trillion dollars that we don't have.<br /><br />We will be paying huge taxes for generations. Once this reality sets in stocks will roll over once again.<br /><br />What shocks me is how much risk investors are willing to take with their nest egg. <br /><br />I still know so many people that are "all in" when it comes to their equity exposure.<br /><br />I don't know how they sleep at night given the volatility we have seen in the past 10 years.<br /><br />to each his own i guess.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-36569404432714828162009-09-08T21:06:25.321-07:002009-09-08T21:06:25.321-07:00Seriously, have any of the economist (I don't ...Seriously, have any of the economist (I don't know exactly what you would call Greenspan or Bernanke) been any where close to forecasting this housing bubble or the magnitude?<br /><br />Schiller seems like he was close, but even he didn't foresee the total collapse of Lehman Bros, AIG, GM, etc.<br /><br />Why does anyone bother to hire economist when they can just come to this blog and post a question and get an answer much closer to reality?Herbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09778090152799165490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-23868623568984484122009-09-08T19:21:38.171-07:002009-09-08T19:21:38.171-07:00Factor of 5 = 400% not 500%Factor of 5 = 400% not 500%Castorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15317266954630009383noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-40775656674831901332009-09-08T19:12:56.677-07:002009-09-08T19:12:56.677-07:00Rally on Herb Rally on!
Wall St is only hiring bu...Rally on Herb Rally on!<br /><br />Wall St is only hiring bullish recovery economists these days!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-42641072384031343362009-09-08T18:58:46.476-07:002009-09-08T18:58:46.476-07:00Only 500%??
Hahahahaha, those wacky economist!Only 500%??<br /><br />Hahahahaha, those wacky economist!Herbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09778090152799165490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-83568120218740795942009-09-08T18:09:22.444-07:002009-09-08T18:09:22.444-07:00Peter
I know.
I'll be honest. I have been h...Peter<br /><br />I know.<br /><br />I'll be honest. I have been having major writers block.<br /><br />There is simply nothing logical to this market.<br /><br />There is nothing to analyze. There is no way to analyze rallies based on nothing but hope.<br /><br />The trend is up until sentiment changes. <br /><br />Everyone I read sound spretty clueless as to how far we have bounced. even the bulls seem pretty shocked.<br /><br />I just shake my head as I sit here and watch SRS crater to $11 as commercial real estate collapses.<br /><br />Its like the market is doing the exact opposite of what it should be doing.<br /><br />I just have to sit here and laugh as I watch stocks metals and bonds go up up and away.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-3286002708266663302009-09-08T17:28:48.453-07:002009-09-08T17:28:48.453-07:00I hear that things are getting much better, that&#...I hear that things are getting much better, that's what the media keeps telling me. Did you see the DOW was up again? That is good economic news, the other stuff is just silly numbers.Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08899893479880360468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-47866697274606395532009-09-08T17:18:44.189-07:002009-09-08T17:18:44.189-07:00LOL
Until the bond market says: Enough.
Obama i...LOL<br /><br />Until the bond market says: Enough.<br /><br />Obama is getting close to crossing that line.<br /><br />What a whacky market..Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-85765538760750937512009-09-08T16:54:48.519-07:002009-09-08T16:54:48.519-07:00Jeff,
why pay when you can refinance at all time l...Jeff,<br />why pay when you can refinance at all time low rates! The US is a serial refinancer!EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.com