tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post5579644712664763778..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Deflation and Debt DestructionJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-29581824037618530102009-01-01T15:42:00.000-08:002009-01-01T15:42:00.000-08:00I'll be back tomorrow everyone!I am busy watching ...I'll be back tomorrow everyone!<BR/><BR/>I am busy watching my Nittany Lions get slaughtered by USC(sigh).Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-78169499623669756122009-01-01T15:40:00.000-08:002009-01-01T15:40:00.000-08:00JoeyThanks for that link it really helped.The good...Joey<BR/><BR/>Thanks for that link it really helped.<BR/><BR/>The good thing now is the VIX is dropping so PUTS and CALLS are getting much attractive!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-1063344786274110452009-01-01T13:47:00.000-08:002009-01-01T13:47:00.000-08:00Jeff,The levered ETFs took many by surprise. I cou...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>The levered ETFs took many by surprise. I couldn't figure out why many of them were idle or declining when clearly they should have been heading up. I too lost a little douhg before figuring out TA means absolutely nothing with levered ETFs.<BR/><BR/>Anyhow, here's to a profitable 2009.<BR/><BR/>Joey (a.k.a Growler....or "His name is Robert Paulson" a' la Fight Club) : )Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-13412127191164058132008-12-31T16:26:00.000-08:002008-12-31T16:26:00.000-08:00AvlThanks and you have a great holiday as well.I w...Avl<BR/><BR/>Thanks and you have a great holiday as well.<BR/><BR/>I went back and read your post and I totally agree with you.<BR/><BR/>I guess we need to ask ourselves: Is any commercial loan going forward performing? The haircuts must be taken as you described. Your thoughts on a total bailout may be the only answer if they want to "kick the can down the road" and play smoke and mirrors like they are with the banks.<BR/><BR/>The size and scope of the whole lending problem and the amount of total debt in general is much larger than I realized.<BR/><BR/>I have to admit I had a hard time sleeping last night after reading the Weiss interview.<BR/><BR/>Its becoming very clear to me that the Fed has a zero chance to re inflate this bubble. <BR/><BR/>$8 trillion of wealth has been wiped out and we are only a year into this, and this doesn't include the losses that are sitting on the banks balance sheet!<BR/>Imagine what the losses would be if you included the subprime "sh*t" sandwhiches that now sit in level 3 assets.<BR/><BR/>HAircuts will be taken everywhere once the Fed realizes they can't re inflate this. Once "reality" hits and the reinflation fails, I think the treasury market is going to go to hell and the Fed will batten down the hatches and ring fence what they need to in order to keep things orderly.<BR/><BR/>2009 really scares me Avl. I really hope we are both wrong.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-58892574512240931592008-12-31T15:57:00.000-08:002008-12-31T15:57:00.000-08:00Jeff, thanks for the well wishes for the New Year ...Jeff, thanks for the well wishes for the New Year and for sharing your insights and views and creating a forum for others to do likewise.<BR/>Have a Great New Year. BTW, did I mention there's been a rash of marriage proposals and/or birth announcements here? Can it be that some folks are responding to this debt crisis in ways that show appreciation for the non-material aspects of living and loving?<BR/><BR/>FYI, I posted a comment (#10) to ur reply on your old CRE Bailout post; it’s regarding a problematic delta in creditworthiness; let me know your thoughts. I think my comment sheds some light on why it is inevitable that the debt destruction U highlighted today will find fresh fuel in CRE debt for years to come, and it also challenges the notion of a 'good' CRE project with a forward-looking performing loan.Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-63196511817662522002008-12-31T15:35:00.000-08:002008-12-31T15:35:00.000-08:00Ooops typo above!USe IYR PUTS to short commercial ...Ooops typo above!<BR/><BR/>USe IYR PUTS to short commercial not UYG.<BR/><BR/>Happy New Year to all.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-6667158499823366942008-12-31T14:49:00.000-08:002008-12-31T14:49:00.000-08:00JoeyGreat pieceThese ETF's have been a learnin...Joey<BR/><BR/>Great piece<BR/><BR/>These ETF's have been a learning experience for me.<BR/><BR/>These should be used mainly for one day holds. The inverse is calculated daily. Its essentially a one day swap which can really hurt you if you hold long term.<BR/><BR/>Growler made a great point earlier this week. Short UYG if you want to go after commercial real estate. <BR/><BR/>I am leaning more towards PUTS/CALLS on SPY for the S&P 500 and the Q's for tech.<BR/><BR/>I talked to a friend who is a financial planner today. He said that the dividend accounting change was a big deal for the REIT's.<BR/><BR/>He also explained that the REIT's are using this cash that they saved from their dividend to buy commercial bonds at a 30% discount.<BR/><BR/>He didn't have time to explain the whole thing to me but basically the REIT's have found a way to profit from this because their bonds are so undervalued.<BR/><BR/>It sounded like nothing that could last long term but it may also help explain the drop in SRS.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-11217193603797374432008-12-31T13:59:00.000-08:002008-12-31T13:59:00.000-08:00EDIT: the ETF itself has become a dead fish. Good...EDIT: the ETF itself has become a dead fish. <BR/><BR/>Good article on levered ETFs<BR/><BR/>http://www.mrswing.com/articles/More_Proshares_UltraShorts_Tomfoolery.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-73476106426980588782008-12-31T13:57:00.000-08:002008-12-31T13:57:00.000-08:00Jeff,I'm very encouraged next year will be very pr...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>I'm very encouraged next year will be very profitable (though troublesome). <BR/><BR/>Re:SRS, I don't think it's the stock but rather the leverage associated. After the past fall, it has become a dead fish. I'm sure another one will come along soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-48691608164706076712008-12-31T12:49:00.000-08:002008-12-31T12:49:00.000-08:00SRS briefly dropped into the 40's..Ouch! Profit t...SRS briefly dropped into the 40's..Ouch! <BR/><BR/>Profit taking time going into the close.<BR/><BR/>Got out of my SSO.<BR/><BR/>CLose looks violentJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-693583814201971302008-12-31T11:36:00.000-08:002008-12-31T11:36:00.000-08:00JoeyThanks for the kind words.Lets hope we find so...Joey<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the kind words.<BR/><BR/>Lets hope we find some ways to make some money in 2009.<BR/><BR/>I am glad my research has helped you(and everyone else).<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the comments and your support on THTB.<BR/><BR/>Happy New Year! <BR/><BR/>JJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-84665911716314952582008-12-31T11:32:00.000-08:002008-12-31T11:32:00.000-08:00MintonSadly, I agree with your predictions.Thanks ...Minton<BR/><BR/>Sadly, I agree with your predictions.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the kind words. I will do my best to keep the posts coming in 2009. The Time Bomb will be cranking as we head into this downturn.<BR/><BR/>I appreciate all of your great comments this year. I have learned a lot from you all as well! <BR/><BR/>Hopefully we can all continue to share our thoughts and help each other get through this financial downturn.<BR/><BR/>You have a safe and Happy New Year as well.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-44860792002502211702008-12-31T10:14:00.000-08:002008-12-31T10:14:00.000-08:00Jeff,Thank you for your dedication to the blog. I'...Jeff,<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your dedication to the blog. I've learned a ton from your analysis. <BR/><BR/>Looking forward to next year.<BR/><BR/>Have a safe, healthy and happy New Year (this applies to everyone).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-45036603083069691182008-12-31T09:25:00.000-08:002008-12-31T09:25:00.000-08:00Jeff - I think your research paints a very clear p...Jeff - I think your research paints a very clear picture of what's going on versus what the government is telling everyone. As much as I'd like to think we'll turn a corner in 2009, I think the next 12 months (and maybe 5 years) are going to be very, very tough.<BR/><BR/>Since it's New Year's Eve, I'd just like to thank you for a great year of posts. This blog has been one of my most talked-about topics of 2008 (much to the bore of my friends, and I've taken credit for being right all the time :-)). Keep it going next year!<BR/><BR/>I wish you and your family a very happy 2009 - safe investing too!James Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13052914767131527583noreply@blogger.com