tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post590131220111426366..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Raise Cash...Another Crisis is on the wayJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-16364737639556319782009-12-04T20:49:20.691-08:002009-12-04T20:49:20.691-08:00Anon
Interesting.
Thanks for the heads up. I ...Anon<br /><br />Interesting. <br /><br />Thanks for the heads up. I have been also noticing the oil divergence from a weakening dollar.<br /><br />crazy times for sure.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12694642495493981729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-43570549168882945822009-12-03T06:24:08.874-08:002009-12-03T06:24:08.874-08:00Jeff:
check out the divergence graph between the ...Jeff:<br /><br />check out the divergence graph between the DOW priced in dollars vs DOW priced in gold...<br /><br />the last time this divergence was present, the DOW gave up 50% of its value.. i.e. crashed.<br /><br />you mention that treasury indicator as well.. there are some warning signs out there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-22914409972160231402009-11-28T06:51:21.526-08:002009-11-28T06:51:21.526-08:00http://blog.mises.org/archives/011096.asp
;)))http://blog.mises.org/archives/011096.asp<br /><br />;)))Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-3019053749100541472009-11-26T21:54:04.609-08:002009-11-26T21:54:04.609-08:00FA
You could very well be right and it will be a ...FA<br /><br />You could very well be right and it will be a scary world if this is how it plays out.<br /><br />Russell <br /><br />I agree with you mate(as they say down under)!<br /><br />Rates must rise or the dollar is toast. If they do rise the economy and the banks implode.<br /><br />What a disaster!<br /><br />We are certianly in deep doo doo. I see no way out is well. <br /><br />GL down there.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-56986384220823375042009-11-26T21:47:41.417-08:002009-11-26T21:47:41.417-08:00CT
Nice to see you!
I hear you when it comes to ...CT<br /><br />Nice to see you!<br /><br />I hear you when it comes to work. I am overwhelmed as well.<br /><br />Cash and gold are great places to be for now. I can't wait until this crisis is over!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-12548408399576065042009-11-26T10:40:59.058-08:002009-11-26T10:40:59.058-08:00Dear Patrik
I have done some back of the envelope...Dear Patrik<br /><br />I have done some back of the envelope analysis on the effects of raising interest rates. I estimate that for each 0.25% increase it will cost the US Government $30 billion. A full 2% increase will therefore add $240 Billion to the debt servicing of the US Federal Government. Can you tell me what programs they would cut or what taxes they would raise.<br /><br /><br />I cannot see large interest rate increases only deliberate devaluation to monetarize the US debts away. In fact this is precisely what you should be doing as their fiscally conservative option has just past being an option.<br /><br />I don't see anyway out of this mess for the USA. <br /><br />Looking from Down Under I wish you guys all the best. <br /><br />We on the other hand are going to have to deal with a Collapsing Chinese Economy in the next few years which should give us plenty to focus on between our barbeque and beaches. <br /><br />Best of luck up there to all my American mates.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01865478759574831977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-6082943871175134202009-11-25T18:14:31.970-08:002009-11-25T18:14:31.970-08:00I agree on cash for 1 thing, paying your bills. T...I agree on cash for 1 thing, paying your bills. That's it. <br /><br />Maybe just a tiny bit sitting should this whole carry trade come to fruition and the dollar rises. <br /><br />Only thing I see, IMHO, is yes people are taking advantage of the low interest on the dollar and putting it into other asset classes. <br /><br />The only difference I see is that when rates rise, should they ever, people aren't going to be climbing back into the dollar. <br /><br />They'll be climbing more into gold, silver, commodities, currencies with the natural resources to back em'. <br /><br />The dollar is done. Central Banks are long on gold. Debasement is going full steam ahead. <br /><br />FA in CAFA in CAnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-58851863039665969462009-11-25T16:37:30.855-08:002009-11-25T16:37:30.855-08:00Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!!!!
I apologize for m...Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!!!!<br /><br />I apologize for my absence. I have just been getting literally slammed at work, and have had no time to play on the internet. heh<br /><br />I'm basically in cash and gold right now (and in a couple of other things in small amounts). I'm trying to cover my ass for whatever they throw at me. <br /><br />Good luck to everyone. We're going to need it. Instead of pardoning the damn turkey, you'd thing "That One" could pardon us for time served and actually fix the damn economy now. Jeez!CT-Hilltopperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12072957592435260585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-72705603317488062402009-11-25T14:05:34.327-08:002009-11-25T14:05:34.327-08:00Yup
Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!
Enjoy your turk...Yup<br /><br />Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!<br /><br />Enjoy your turkey day!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-31897461472155728012009-11-25T09:31:55.132-08:002009-11-25T09:31:55.132-08:00At this time of year I like to think about that ol...At this time of year I like to think about that old South Park episode with the crazy turkeys painted up like Braveheart. Have a goo one all!EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-61120339356123018092009-11-24T16:19:28.458-08:002009-11-24T16:19:28.458-08:00Flip
Don't you miss all of that volatility?
...Flip<br /><br />Don't you miss all of that volatility?<br /><br />It sure made the market exciting to watch. Today it takes a month to see a 100 point move on the S&P.<br /><br />Wait until this market flatlines for years after it gets clobbered.<br /><br />Its going to turn into a borefest.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-48873393373025677842009-11-24T16:17:22.548-08:002009-11-24T16:17:22.548-08:00James
Thanks!
BS is how I see how I see it too. ...James<br /><br />Thanks!<br /><br />BS is how I see how I see it too. They are taking away future growth in the economy with all of this stimulus.<br /><br />All its going to do is guarantee zero to slow growth in the future.<br /><br />Robbing from Peter to pay Paul. Cheers<br /><br />JJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-62402790648433538272009-11-24T09:17:45.644-08:002009-11-24T09:17:45.644-08:00Jeff - great post.
So what do you think about al...Jeff - great post. <br /><br />So what do you think about all this housing "good news"? I'm calling BS on this - I presume this is fueled by the $8K credit and people snatching up foreclosures. The headlines are full of it right now...James Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13052914767131527583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-9201747125240579612009-11-24T06:27:39.353-08:002009-11-24T06:27:39.353-08:00Could be a good day to buy puts and other shorts w...Could be a good day to buy puts and other shorts while folks are out beating each other senseless over cheap chinese junk.<br /><br />I'm not sure how Thanksgiving week fares traditionally, but the markets rallied huge last year - the SNP was up almost 100 pts that week.flipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-1354242796895026922009-11-23T17:47:48.060-08:002009-11-23T17:47:48.060-08:00Anon
I will be building cash and holding gold as ...Anon<br /><br />I will be building cash and holding gold as long as the bailouts continue.<br /><br />The government has replaced the economy and it can only do so for a short period of time.<br /><br />I will most likely get out of cash when the Fed pulls out their liquidity and interest rates rise. Will this be 3 months, 6 months? I wish I could tell you. <br /><br />The Fed has proven to be very effective when it comes to delaying the pain that is inevitable.<br /><br />One thing I do know is you will know when its safee to come out and play because the market will roll over as violently as it has gone up since June.<br /><br />The volumes are light right now because the big boys have made their profits for the year. their next concern will be to protect them after a 50% bounce. When the market looks like its going to roll back over the selling will be violent as the HFT's take profits.<br /><br />This temporary stimulus has people out buying risky investments and they are insane for doing so.<br /><br />Stocks for the most part have had their move. My next move out of cash will be short versus long. thinking about going short with about 7% of my portfolio via long dated SPY PUTS and the ETF SDS.<br /><br />I may do it this week. Gonna see how things go.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-40009262364667104582009-11-23T17:43:35.128-08:002009-11-23T17:43:35.128-08:00Jeff,
went over the last 6 months of trading tonig...Jeff,<br />went over the last 6 months of trading tonight on the blog, not bad but not awe inspiring. To me return OF capital is always better than return ON capital!<br /><br />Anon,<br />Cannot speak for Jeff, but I have timed the next major crisis to commence on February 4th at 2:23pm EST, plan accordingly! (sarcasm applied, kidding!)EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-21203951404148071962009-11-23T17:36:58.612-08:002009-11-23T17:36:58.612-08:00Get
Thanks a lot. I am trying to do more with e...Get <br /><br />Thanks a lot. I am trying to do more with each post now that I can't post as often.<br /><br />Glad to see your financial house is in order. I have raised cash, but I think its time to raise even more.<br /><br />Crazy timesJeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-5892845302379833702009-11-23T16:30:58.325-08:002009-11-23T16:30:58.325-08:00Jeff - nice post. Im a little spooked. Out of cu...Jeff - nice post. Im a little spooked. Out of curiosity, how long do you plan on staying in "raised cash" mode.<br /><br />Put another way, how long til you can say another crisis isnt in the offing, a week, a month, 3 months? <br /><br />Just wondering.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-45758229830161807622009-11-23T16:05:59.373-08:002009-11-23T16:05:59.373-08:00Jeff,
it is not quantity of posts, but quality and...Jeff,<br />it is not quantity of posts, but quality and this one was very good.<br /><br />I agree, cash right now is a good move; something just has to give and soon.<br /><br />I am mainly already in cash, besides my metal positions and a few small stock holdings.<br /><br />Hope you get a break for the holiday from work.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-21159985407565376862009-11-23T14:06:20.993-08:002009-11-23T14:06:20.993-08:00Anon
Anything can happen.
I doubt gold would dro...Anon<br /><br />Anything can happen.<br /><br />I doubt gold would drop if the dollar dropped. Infact, it would be quite bullish for goldbecause it may end up being the last form of currency standing.<br /><br />The biggest risk for gold is a deflationary collapse where dollars become scarce. Even then, gold should hold up fairly well because it will be regarded as being safe.<br /><br />The main reason gold dropped in the 1990's is because the FCB's were dumping their gold.<br /><br />In today's unstable environment, the FCB's are huge buyers of gold. India's purchase from the IMF is a good example.<br /><br />GL and glad to hear you are raising cash.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-50390858121293228802009-11-23T14:02:47.442-08:002009-11-23T14:02:47.442-08:00HEy Flip
Thanks! Sorry it's been so quiet ar...HEy Flip<br /><br />Thanks! Sorry it's been so quiet around here. Things where I work are chaitic as hell right now so I haven't had the time to write.<br /><br />Didn't hear that about advertising.com.<br /><br />My friends wife works for the city of Baltimore and the city just furloughed everyone 1 day a week throughout the rest of the year.<br /><br />That sure won't help the retail sales in the city. <br /><br />Things are seriously worsening.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-82606096498910352612009-11-23T13:34:09.067-08:002009-11-23T13:34:09.067-08:00been checking frequently, good to see your back.
...been checking frequently, good to see your back.<br /><br />interesting and scary post.<br /><br />i have been raising cash; out of the system cash since last year. i am depending on the cash/gold hedge; one up, other down.<br /><br />question for you. is there A possible senario where gold and dollar DROP together? when would this possibly happen.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-65871797869976301632009-11-23T11:48:13.966-08:002009-11-23T11:48:13.966-08:00I was wondering why you hadn't posted anything...I was wondering why you hadn't posted anything after the 3 year went negative last week. It's hard to see an imminent crash again with the holiday week, and then we're probably due for a santa rally into 2010?<br /><br />Still, great post. You do your best work when you're frothiest.<br /><br /><br />I still see no signs of unemployment abetting. One of Baltimore's tech success stories is going byebye - advertising.com is for all intents shutting down as they look for people to take voluntary layoffs now (or involuntary layoffs soon after).<br /><br />A few people I know who had great jobs at B&D are also going to be on the unemployment line soon.<br /><br />All of them thought their hard work and stable companies made their jobs safe. Unfortunately that's not true.<br /><br />The next few months will be interesting to say the least.flipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-86535651452714668422009-11-23T08:22:38.707-08:002009-11-23T08:22:38.707-08:00Thanks Patrik.
Gold now up another $24 to new hig...Thanks Patrik.<br /><br />Gold now up another $24 to new highs. Unbelievable.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-32827316333828739512009-11-23T06:59:31.993-08:002009-11-23T06:59:31.993-08:00Great post! Thanks! It looks like a major inverse ...Great post! Thanks! It looks like a major inverse head & shoulder in 10 year interest rate. 6% target!!Patriknoreply@blogger.com