tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post706861078270555839..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Is America Losing Interest in the Stock Market?Jeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-91652169269005022802010-03-19T14:55:15.469-07:002010-03-19T14:55:15.469-07:00"Smart money will wait? I have no idea what &..."Smart money will wait? I have no idea what "smart money" will be doing, but I can assure you it will not be sitting round doing nothing."<br /><br />Anon<br /><br />Thats precisely the problem. The "smart money" jumps from sector to sector creating one bubble after another along the way.<br /><br />Then once it peaks the bi money bails and moves on to the next "big" thing leaving retail invetors stuck with the losses.<br /><br />This type of investing is neither sustainable nor healthy.<br /><br />Anyone jumping into the snakepit and trying to trade against these guys is just asking to get slaughtered.<br /><br />Fundementals will matter at some point and all of this crap will come to an end.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-90736768215518855712010-03-19T08:11:46.085-07:002010-03-19T08:11:46.085-07:00"Flippydippy said...
It would seem they are...."Flippydippy said...<br /><br />It would seem they are. Some patterns suggest we could breach the 2007 highs in the next 1-2 years. By the time retail goes back in, the fed will be goosing the smart money out of equities and into bonds to keep the ponzi going, and we'll be on our way to visit a real crash from up above to below or near the 2008 bottoms."<br /><br />If it takes that long to peak and then burst, that means this isnt a bear market bounce - that means it was a new cycle (and a new bottom). Just sayin.<br /><br /><br />"I'm sure I will miss some profit opportunities over the next few years, but I'm content to sit in cash (not bonds) and not invest in retirement or bonds or equities until this sorts itself out. If that's in 1 year or 5, it's coming. Smart money will wait. No need to chase anything right now."<br /><br />Smart money will wait? I have no idea what "smart money" will be doing, but I can assure you it will not be sitting round doing nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-24210829823254259472010-03-19T06:49:07.841-07:002010-03-19T06:49:07.841-07:00Herb,
Just guessing, but if movement in the equit...Herb,<br /><br />Just guessing, but if movement in the equity markets continue to be bullish AND volume really picks up, then you know those people who moved their assets to bonds in 08 and 09 are finally back on board the equity bandwagon.<br /><br />And that would probably be a good indicator as any bonds are about to hit the skids.<br /><br />I have no idea how a bond crash would impact the average US citizen. You have to assume that whomever makes the markets now will crash stocks and spook people back into bonds if it looks like bonds are in jeopardy. I don't see that happening anytime in the intermediate future, but supposing a black swan event [unlikely] happens it could be soon.<br /><br />But maybe by that point it's too late, and bonds crash, then equities crash, and bonds crash again further.<br /><br />Jeff's said it before...when the bond bubble bursts, it is going to be uglier than anything else we've dealt with in the last hundred years in our financial sector.<br /><br />I too have some PIMCO bonds because they're the least offensive options in those 401k accounts. But I am being vigilant and paying attention, and when it looks like they're in trouble, I'm prepared to liquidate those retirement accounts or roll them over into IRAs where I can leave them in safer holdings.flipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-22371917631482370012010-03-18T18:29:38.387-07:002010-03-18T18:29:38.387-07:00So what events will forecast bonds losing value??So what events will forecast bonds losing value??Herbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09778090152799165490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-51304516159156027372010-03-18T16:44:33.805-07:002010-03-18T16:44:33.805-07:00Flip
I agree. I haven't made a trade in mont...Flip<br /><br />I agree. I haven't made a trade in months. <br /><br />I do have quite a few bonds but its with PIMCO which did well last year(up18%).<br /><br />I figure Bill Gross will be get a "tip" to bail right before treasuries fall apart.<br /><br />The rest is in cash and in some metals along. I do also have a couple small spec stock plays.<br /><br />This market cracks me up. Party on Garth!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09032396369257724474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-26205201881666451422010-03-18T11:56:49.571-07:002010-03-18T11:56:49.571-07:00It would seem they are. Some patterns suggest we ...It would seem they are. Some patterns suggest we could breach the 2007 highs in the next 1-2 years. By the time retail goes back in, the fed will be goosing the smart money out of equities and into bonds to keep the ponzi going, and we'll be on our way to visit a real crash from up above to below or near the 2008 bottoms.<br /><br />I'm sure I will miss some profit opportunities over the next few years, but I'm content to sit in cash (not bonds) and not invest in retirement or bonds or equities until this sorts itself out. If that's in 1 year or 5, it's coming. Smart money will wait. No need to chase anything right now.flipdippynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-74994937880149878792010-03-18T08:39:56.821-07:002010-03-18T08:39:56.821-07:00"I whitnessed people panick selling like craz..."I whitnessed people panick selling like crazy during the collapse in the fall of 2008. it was insane...the complete opposite of the euphoria of early 2000."<br /><br />Yep - at the bottom, I heard that the bullish sentiment index got down to 6 - lowest in recorded history (I think it bottomed at 22 in the tech wreck). Given how steeply it fell, I guess its no surprise the rebound was so strong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-79754699911798519312010-03-17T19:47:13.618-07:002010-03-17T19:47:13.618-07:00Anon
Lol. That's what makes a market.
I dis...Anon<br /><br />Lol. That's what makes a market.<br /><br />I disagree. You don't see 60% reversals at the bottom. 2000 is a great example of a bottom. Nobody wanted tech stocks for years. We are still 60% from the highs on the Nasdaq. <br /><br />I have a lot of friends that are advisors and they got calls but they were asking more about what they should do versus demanding to get it of stocks.<br /><br />We will see what happens. Good luck!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-79263579548885728422010-03-17T18:26:25.908-07:002010-03-17T18:26:25.908-07:00lol! you gotta be kidding me. you didn't see a...lol! you gotta be kidding me. you didn't see anger and disgust at the bottom? As a former advisor who worked in a call center office I can tell you I saw it first hand. I whitnessed people panick selling like crazy during the collapse in the fall of 2008. it was insane...the complete opposite of the euphoria of early 2000. Is it any suprise the market is up 75%since? I don't think so. Bears are in denial.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-74330410246677297492010-03-17T14:02:43.818-07:002010-03-17T14:02:43.818-07:00Anon
Your thoughts mirror mine exactly wen it coe...Anon<br /><br />Your thoughts mirror mine exactly wen it coems to cash.<br /><br />I would be "all in" on stocks if I saw normal valuations.<br /><br />Everyone is chasing this market and that is not where you want to be if you are an investor.<br /><br />Part of the problem is everyone speculates vs investing today. This mentality is exacerbating the moves higher and lower.<br /><br />Instead of corrections we have crashes. The same thing going the other way when the trend is higher. It always overshoots.<br /><br />I can't wait for the day where I see cheap valuations after the speculators get their clock cleaned again.<br /><br />I will be "all in" with my cash once we get there just like you will.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-52034450827283532010-03-17T13:57:20.591-07:002010-03-17T13:57:20.591-07:00Anon
Yeah
Its tough out there in your industry...Anon<br /><br /><br />Yeah<br /><br /> Its tough out there in your industry with no growth in real estate.<br /><br />Keep plugging away. Good luck with the job search!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-88058874066689612892010-03-17T06:38:31.910-07:002010-03-17T06:38:31.910-07:00Frustration is the key word at this point. My view...Frustration is the key word at this point. My view is we will start hearing more about the economy improving going forward but the stock market will start trending down,as the valuations are too high and the yield too low. I will be interested to see if earnings will improve on revenues & not just cost cutting, inventory build ups in the future. I think the fed did send a message that yes the economy is healing and the fact they will still stick to the plan of not buying any more mbs in April will be a first step in getting them out of the way and the start of us seeing what is the real situation. The governments involvement is what is making it hard for me to make a good decision. Had the government not been so involved and the market were at 800 then I would be moving funds in but now I am relegated to building up cash. At least with cash I know I've got it and it is not going to go poof one day and while inflation is still very tame, it's working fine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-77931145958466582642010-03-17T06:01:25.492-07:002010-03-17T06:01:25.492-07:00I'm an Industeral Electrician and I can't ...I'm an Industeral Electrician and I can't find a job,As long as oil goes up everything is OKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-27985084425661884052010-03-16T22:23:01.285-07:002010-03-16T22:23:01.285-07:00Anon
I hear you.
We all are frustrated. I am in...Anon<br /><br />I hear you.<br /><br />We all are frustrated. I am in metals as well and today's Fed statement will only strengthen them.<br /><br />I hate the way the government is kicking the can versus letting everything fall to affordable prices.<br /><br />Stocks, housing, college educations, and everything else must come in line with incomes.<br /><br />The distortions are so frustrating!<br /><br />I will continue to make zero interest on the majority of my money other then some bonds. I refuse to participate just like you have.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-177732493796893092010-03-16T21:11:46.554-07:002010-03-16T21:11:46.554-07:00I've got to say that I'm tired of the Wall...I've got to say that I'm tired of the Wall St. games, the gov. lies, programmed trades, manipulation, false stats . . . There is no logic to the markets and I don't have confidence the fundamentals will prevail so I won't commit new money to anything except metals (miners). Bond bubble will pop.<br /><br />Just kind of waiting for everything to eventually collapse. We all know it's going to happern so let's hurry up and get on with it!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-5731357885751784242010-03-16T21:03:06.090-07:002010-03-16T21:03:06.090-07:00Anon
Lol. So true. That's why I think the M...Anon<br /><br />Lol. So true. That's why I think the March lows were not the bottom. I saw no disgust or people saying they will never own stocks again.<br /><br />We may go higher from here but I am confident that the lows in march will eventually be broken.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-7747892319043391842010-03-16T21:00:02.458-07:002010-03-16T21:00:02.458-07:00Herb
Yup
They are slowly running out of options ...Herb<br /><br />Yup<br /><br />They are slowly running out of options aren't they?<br /><br />I am curious to see their next magic trick/bubble!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-43079538664571924162010-03-16T20:25:49.382-07:002010-03-16T20:25:49.382-07:00your article proves that this market will only go ...your article proves that this market will only go higher. the investing public are idiots who always get interested in the market near the end of a bull cycle and then sell in disgust near the bottom of the bear market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-86322868295721423662010-03-16T19:53:22.337-07:002010-03-16T19:53:22.337-07:00Yep - its return of capital, not return on capital...Yep - its return of capital, not return on capital that everyone is concerned with. Wall*Street is no doubt trying to find some new strategy to keep the rally alive.Herbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09778090152799165490noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-84625283707309877032010-03-16T18:10:06.086-07:002010-03-16T18:10:06.086-07:00Ooops I meant third time since 2000.Ooops I meant third time since 2000.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-61722903822583589652010-03-16T18:09:29.594-07:002010-03-16T18:09:29.594-07:00Get
So true!
And the longer we sit here at zero ...Get<br /><br />So true!<br /><br />And the longer we sit here at zero interest rates the higher the risk of another bubble somewhere.<br /><br />Like you said...Preservation of capital is the key right now and no one wants to accept it.<br /><br />These speculators are all going to blow themelves for a third time since 2010 within a year or so.<br /><br />Maybe then investors will understand that fundementals are what really matters and bubble blowing isn't the answer!Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-33142396685029949552010-03-16T17:11:13.476-07:002010-03-16T17:11:13.476-07:00Great article!
I think money is going into bonds ...Great article!<br /><br />I think money is going into bonds but anything with the "real estate" tag will be left out. We will see the FED step back in in that space. Many regular investors got smoked in the dot com bust and i think most felt they got in over their head. They switched to real estate and vanilla S&P index type funds and low and behold they got smoked on two fronts once again. At this point I think return OF capital is more important to main street than return ON capital. Too bad our whole system is based on juicing things into bubbles.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.com