tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post8575981801775848115..comments2023-10-31T01:32:09.169-07:00Comments on The Housing Time Bomb: Thinking of Buying a Condo? Think againJeffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-18155244335507084592008-04-25T22:09:00.000-07:002008-04-25T22:09:00.000-07:00avl Very well said. Its already hitting accordin...avl<BR/><BR/> Very well said. Its already hitting according to brokers. I have started to read some warnings to owners in condo newsletters. <BR/><BR/>I have heard that some people are already started getting turned down based on the new lending standards.<BR/><BR/>If you have too many renters in a condo property look out. The HOA better be strong. <BR/><BR/>And yet the financials were up again on Friday.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-15887645606730090492008-04-23T21:01:00.000-07:002008-04-23T21:01:00.000-07:00Jeff, I shared the latest "silent" bombshell from ...Jeff, I shared the latest "silent" bombshell from Fannie/Freddie with 20 folks. As a former condo owner and chair of the association's finance committee, I had warned newbie buyers to invest more due diligence on the health of the association's finances, etc, so I actually think these are prudent reserves & downpmt benchmarks by Fannie.<BR/>HOWEVER, the 30% investor quota is gonna kill folks in '08 & beyond...flipping condos into rentals is the last lifesaver for recently opened condo properties in declining markets that haven’t sold/ can't closed....and also for all the non-luxury condo towers coming on market in dense urban areas in 08 & 09.<BR/>My conjecture is that the Feds concluded last week to give the "Bear Stearns treatment" to the national condo market; sacrificing many current condo owners, along with all the "moral hazard-prone" developers and commercial lenders behind the massive numbers of condo product still (shamelessly?) under-construction. Were condos the sacrificial lambs in reducing supply to better match tepid housing demand? Fannie’s move is the regulatory equivalent of bulldozing the condo stock off the market (for now). I guess this condo treatment is to be a “message” to the rest of us.Avl Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12298355297869341807noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-44809736284617468062008-04-21T09:18:00.000-07:002008-04-21T09:18:00.000-07:00Minton Thanks a lot for the feedback. I am glad ...Minton<BR/><BR/> Thanks a lot for the feedback. I am glad you are liking the blog.<BR/><BR/>I am also shocked at the speed of this downturn. Wasn't aware of the Anne Taylor info. Good stuff. Thats not a good sign at all. <BR/><BR/>It seems like companies are buckling from the pressures of the debt bubble.<BR/><BR/>This is like watching a slow trainwreck isn't it?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04450070920047311928noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6492542366661862113.post-66590511955868110942008-04-21T07:48:00.000-07:002008-04-21T07:48:00.000-07:00"The lenders are going to run away from condo lend..."The lenders are going to run away from condo lending as fast as they can."<BR/><BR/>Excellent post - I think the quote above says it all. This is one of the many changes happening so quickly that Joe Public hasn't noticed yet, and things are going to get *very* ugly.<BR/><BR/>Even though I've had a bearish outlook for at least six months, the speed and severity of this downtown has exceeded even my expectations. <BR/><BR/>Just as an aside, I find it interesting that retailers such as Ann Taylor and Zales are closing stores everywhere on 0.5% like-for-like sales declines. This would imply their growth has been built on debt-accumulation not so different from the second/third-home mortgage problem we've seen. When sales slide 10%, the fan's going to get so hard, it'll stop spinning.<BR/><BR/>This is by far one of my favorite blogs, btw.James Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13052914767131527583noreply@blogger.com