Monday, March 3, 2008

Thornburg Mortgage hanging on by a thread

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKq6qhJxTuvY

I needed to comment on this tonight because its just another nail in the coffin for housing as the time bomb is about to explode. TMA fell 51% today down to $4.32/share as they announced they may not be able to meet margin requirements required by their lenders.

As you can see by this article Citi thinks that they might not find the capital to cover the margin calls and go BK. I find this ironic because I am not even sure Citi can avoid Bankruptcy but that's beside the point.

This is an important development because Thornburg was supposed to be the BEST run mortgage outfit in the country. They avoided all subprime loans. They focused almost solely on "jumbo" loans(over $417,000). If you were a Kennedy or a Bill Gates or a hedge fund billionaire then this is where you went to get your loan. It was the Rolls Royce of mortgage companies. To fighting for their lives shows you how bad things are out there.

The reason Thornburg is having so many problems is they got involved in some no doc Alt-A CMO's. The credit markets are so scared of anything involved with housing they don't want to touch any CDO or CMO because FEAR and as a result Thornburg is stuck with these CMO's and can't sell them. These CMO's are most likely decent securitizations because Thornburg had such tight lending standards and dealt with such an affluent customer base. The credit market must think otherwise. This is consistent with my worst case scenario thesis that we will now see prime and Alt-A loans start to fail at a much higher rate.

Everyone knows the credit markets are frozen and not moving any paper but the fact that Thornburg is being hung out there to die is something to take notice of. If their CMO's can't sell then what about WAMU's or Countrywides paper? If Thornburg goes under then get ready to see the others follow or be forced to merge.

Bank of America's(BAC) purchase of Countrywide is not a move BAC wants to make IMO. Its a move they have to make. Expect some other larger outfits like WAMU to be merged in as well. Why? Because its in both parties best interest. A bank run on Countrywide could result in a full panic and force bank runs everywhere else. Its in the banks own interests to buy the weak and work with the gov't on absorbing the debt without going under themselves. These mergers were done many times in 1990/91. Citibank was insolvent themselves before being merged with other banks which allowed them to avoid bankruptcy.

The difference here is the lending was 10 times worse in the last 5 years then it ever was in 1990/91. There were no subprime, no doc, or 100% financing loans in 1990 which were common in the past two years.

So the big question that remains is did the reckless/ponzi like lending take the banks to the point of where they get time bombed and go under?? Time will tell and I am afraid of what the answer is.

There was another big development in the market today around freddy/fanny and appraisers that I will discuss tomorrow.

22 comments:

Brandon Schlichter said...

So, maybe you can explain to me why my area hasn't depreciated? Or why sales are up?

I don't understand, with all the doom and gloom why my market is doing so well in OHIO.

Jeff said...

Hi Brandon

Most markets have not priced in the troubles in housing because the sellers still have visions of selling at 2005 prices. They are also holding prices hoping that the buyers will come back when it gets warm. Spring/summer is when the majority of homes are sold.

It usually takes some time for sellers to go from denial to panic. Its hard to accept the fact that you may need to short sell your house. It takes time for this reality to set in. Be patient. Your opportunity will come.

Most sellers also do not understand the tightening in lending standards. Once the reality of this hits you will start seeing big price drops.

One other thing you need to look at if prices are staying the same or even rising by 1% in your local market is when was the last house sold? Also look at the volume of houses sold versus last year.

If the volume of sales is very low then it can make things look better then they are. I expect the first big set of drops to happen at the end of the summer when sellers begin to realize they will need to wait out another winter until the big spring selling time.

Keep in mind also that in areas of Ohio there have been some big drops already due to the loss of manufacturing so this is another thing to look at. If things haven't moved yet then expect them to soon. Also look at your pricing points. You will see the biggest drops in the higher priced housing. if you are looking at a 100k house then the drops will be smaller.

Hope this helps

Anonymous said...

If after taking an antibiotic you have rash, itching and difficulty breathing call your doctor!
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] There are really effective medicines that can fight even most resistant bacteria in the world. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] You should always ask your doctor about the side effects of the antibiotic he prescribes you. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Not so long ago I thought that antibiotics can be used to treat absolutely any infection. [/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anonymous said...

Antibiotics are powerful medicines that fight bacteria. Used properly, they can save lives.
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] There are really effective medicines that can fight even most resistant bacteria in the world. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Antibiotics do not fight infections caused by viruses, such as flu, most coughs and bronchitis. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Are you sure the medication you take brings only good to your body? Consult your doctor! [/url]

Anonymous said...

You can prevent catching infections and taking antibiotics by practicing good hygiene.
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] There are really effective medicines that can fight even most resistant bacteria in the world. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] When harmful bacteria get into your body antibiotics help your organism resist them and cure. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If a virus that is making you sick, remember, taking antibiotics may do more harm than good. [/url]

Anonymous said...

Antibiotics are powerful medicines that fight bacteria. Used properly, they can save lives.
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Taking antibiotics, you increase the chances that bacteria in your body will be able to resist. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If you have bronchitis, antibiotics won’t make a good choice! Try consulting your doctor! [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] When taking antibiotics, take good care. Some of them may have side effects and bring harm! [/url]

Anonymous said...

Spring is the time when bacteria wake up and produce quickly. Make sure you are protected!
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Do not expect antibiotics to cure every illness. They are useless when it comes to flu or cold. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] We have all the information you need to know about antibiotics and the effect they produce! [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Bacteria should be treated with antibiotics to which they have not yet become resistant. [/url]

Anonymous said...

Tetracyclines may be effective against a variety of microorganisms, and dangerous bacteria.
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] Never take antibiotics without a prescription. Your doctor should control you taking antibiotics. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If you or your children have a fungal infection, don’t waste your precious time on antibiotics! [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If your doctor does prescribe an antibiotic for you, make sure you take all of the medicine. [/url]

Anonymous said...

Pneumonia – this word threatens everybody in the world! Learn how to protect your family!
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If a virus that is making you sick, remember, taking antibiotics may do more harm than good. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] My sister caught a cold and started taking antibiotics. She was rushed to hospital very soon. [/url]
[url=http://www.afterpillonline.com] If a virus that is making you sick, remember, taking antibiotics may do more harm than good. [/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Jennifer-Kotwal-136.htm]Jennifer Kotwal[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Manjari-Fadnis-138.htm]Manjari Fadnis[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bhairavi-Goswami-30.htm]Bhairavi Goswami[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Anushka-Shetty-147.htm]Anushka Shetty[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Koena-Mitra-33.htm]Koena Mitra[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Wallpapers[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aishwarya-Rai-114.htm]Aishwarya Rai[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Ayesha-Takia-28.htm]Ayesha Takia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Diya-Mirza-116.htm]Diya Mirza[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neha-Dhupia-8.htm]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Nandana-Sen-109.htm]Nandana Sen[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Bipasha-Basu-29.htm]Bipasha Basu[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Neetu-Chandra-34.htm]Neetu Chandra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kim-Sharma-119.htm]Kim Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Zarine-Khan-123.htm]Zarine Khan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Amrita-Rao-2.htm]Amrita Rao[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aarti-Chhabria-122.htm]Aarti Chhabria[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Asin-32.htm]Asin[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Celina-Jaitley-1.htm]Celina Jaitley[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Deepika-Padukone-5.htm]Deepika Padukone[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Geeta-Basra-24.htm]Geeta Basra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kareena-Kapoor-115.htm]Kareena Kapoor[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Katrina-Kaif-11.htm]Katrina Kaif[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Sonal-Chauhan-21.htm]Sonal Chauhan[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Priyanka-Chopra-3.htm]Priyanka Chopra[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Aditi-Sharma-126.htm]Aditi Sharma[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Hazel-Crowney-135.htm]Hazel Crowney[/url]

[url=http://www.wallpaperhungama.in/cat-Kashmira-Shah-110.htm]Kashmira Shah[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/biography/]Neha Dhupia Biography[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/filmography/]Neha Dhupia Filmography[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/photo-gallery/]Neha Dhupia Photo Gallery[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Gossip[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Actress[/url]

Anonymous said...

Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chorpa first time worked together in Vishal Bhardwaj’s Kaminey movie. In the film ‘Kamine’ Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra shotted a lip lock related scene. For this scene firstly Priyanka have refused but lately she agreed on director Bharddhaj’s saying.
This scene completed after taking 5 retake shots. Now you see on the screen that how looks like their chemistry. Check put below given Shahid Kapoor Priyanka Chopra lip locked exclusive video clip.

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/04/shahid-kapoor-priyanka-chopra-sexy-lip-lock-kissing-video/]Shahid Kapoor Priyanka Chopra Sexy Lip Lock Kissing video[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anonymous said...

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/]Neha Dhupia[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/biography/]Neha Dhupia Biography[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/filmography/]Neha Dhupia Filmography[/url]

[url=http://www.nehadhupia.org/photo-gallery/]Neha Dhupia Photo Gallery[/url]

Anonymous said...

Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chorpa first time worked together in Vishal Bhardwaj’s Kaminey movie. In the film ‘Kamine’ Shahid Kapoor and Priyanka Chopra shotted a lip lock related scene. For this scene firstly Priyanka have refused but lately she agreed on director Bharddhaj’s saying.
This scene completed after taking 5 retake shots. Now you see on the screen that how looks like their chemistry. Check put below given Shahid Kapoor Priyanka Chopra lip locked exclusive video clip.

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/04/shahid-kapoor-priyanka-chopra-sexy-lip-lock-kissing-video/]Shahid Kapoor Priyanka Chopra Sexy Lip Lock Kissing video[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anonymous said...

Director : Mani Ratnam
Music Director : A.R Rahman
Lyricist/s : Gulzar
Movie Cast : Abhishek Bachchan & Aishwarya Rai

Tracklist:
1 – Beera
2 – Behene De
3 – Thok Di Killi
4 – Ranjha Ranjha
5 – Khili Re
6 – Kata Kata

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/raavan-mp3-songs/]Raavan Mp3 Songs[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anonymous said...

Director : Anurag Basu
Cast : Hrithik Roshan, Kangna Ranaut & Barbara Mori
Music Director: Rajesh Roshan
Lyricist: Nasir Faraaz & Asif Ali Beg

Tracklist:
1 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki
2 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera
3 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi
4 – Kites In The Sky
5 – Fire
6 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki (Remix)
7 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera (Remix)
8 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi (Remix)
9 – Fire (English Version)

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/kites-mp3-songs/]Kites Mp3 Songs[/url]


[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]

Anonymous said...

Hot Mallu Aunty Indian Sex nude group sex in Desi Masala Hindi Movies collection gallery clips Hot Mallu Aunty Indian Sex nude group sex in Desi Masala Hindi Movies collection gallery clips

[url=http://www.mydesizone.com/categories/Desi-Masala/21/page1.html]Desi Masala Videos[/url]

Anonymous said...

Director : Anurag Basu
Cast : Hrithik Roshan, Kangna Ranaut & Barbara Mori
Music Director: Rajesh Roshan
Lyricist: Nasir Faraaz & Asif Ali Beg

Tracklist:
1 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki
2 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera
3 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi
4 – Kites In The Sky
5 – Fire
6 – Zindagi Do Pal Ki (Remix)
7 – Dil Kyun Yeh Mera (Remix)
8 – Tum Bhi Ho Wahi (Remix)
9 – Fire (English Version)

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/2010/05/kites-mp3-songs/]Kites Mp3 Songs[/url]


[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood Blog[/url]

[url=http://www.bollywood-latest.com/]Bollywood News[/url]