Thursday, August 11, 2011

DOW 5000 Possible by 2013???

United ICap's chief technical analyst Walt Zimmerman sure thinks so.

Gulp.  This is kinda how I see things playing out although I am not sure we get down that far.  Europe is a repeat of our banking collapse here.  There is no reason to think that "it's different this time".

Enjoy Walt and have a drink or two this weekend.  It's been a long stressful week for anyone that has a 401k. 


Futes are rolling over here tonight so I wouldn't be surprised to see a red day tomorrow if the retail sales #'s are bad.

For what it's worth I am flat in my trading account.  I sold my last DB PUTS on Wednesday.  Sitting in cash.  I do not like playing when the tape is this violent.  Options are too expensive, and its easy to get your face ripped off if you are on the wrong side of the tape.

For now I will grab some popcorn and enjoy the fireworks from the sidelines.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Dylan: Our Political Syatem is a FAILURE!

I couldn't agree more....

Our political system is a complete and utter catastrophe.  I must admit that I hate both parties at this point.  Dylan's rant is something that I think all of us can relate to.

It's time to get angry folks.  It's time to demand change.  Our system is BROKEN.  I received several panicked messages today asking about what they should do with their investments after the massacre we have seen in the past two weeks.

People are confused and SCARED at what in the hell is going on in the financial markets and they damn well should be!  How did our financial system get so screwed up?

I have friends with families that are petrified.  They ask me:  How do you "invest" when the DOW is up and down 100 points every 2 minutes?  I then proceed to tell them that I have no answers and if they are uncomfortable then they should go to cash or bonds so that they can sleep at night.

You have to ask yourself the following questions:

How can the average Joe grow his investments in a peaceful manner when the market continues to be in total chaos?

How many times is the average investor going to keep investing when he sees his investments drop by 50?  It's already happened twice in the past 10 years and we are likely about to see the same thing happen for a third time.

When are the regulators going to say enough?  How many billions of dollars need to be lost by the average American before the government stops all of this high speed computer BS?
All most Americans want is a safe place to invest money so that they can send their kids to college and then retire.  Is that asking too much???

The way the system is setup right now it's basically impossible for the average American to achieve their goals:

A)  Private colleges are now 40k a year...

B)  Houses are unaffordable and over priced...


Most importantly:

C) Americans no longer have a safe way to invest!!!!!  I can't stress this point enough which is why it's in bold. 

My final question:  How does America get to both A&B when C is a complete disaster/failure????

Let's just face it:  "Children's college funds" are a complete joke now that the sharks on Wall St have turned investing into a casino as they buy and sell stocks every 7 seconds.

When is this all going to stop???  Enough already!!!!

Listen to Dylan and realize you are not alone:

Monday, August 8, 2011

THTB Crash Warning

I wanted to hop on tonight and alert everyone that I am very concerned about the possibility of a crash tomorrow.

Crashes are usually not telegraphed so it likely won't happen.  However, the elements for one are there and the price action in the futures is extremely alarming.

We are down an additional 35 handles on the S&P from the close.

Here is a print of the /ES(S&P futures) as of 10PM tonight:

China's inflation numbers that were released tonight are are making matters worse because they came in hotter than expected:
"China CPI 6.5% YoY, higher than expected.

PPI is 7.5% YoY."

This is is hammering the world markets at a time where the world's investors are already completely panicked.

The Bottom Line

I am extremely concerned folks.  The US banks are collapsing. BAC was down 20% on the day.  GS, MS, and Citi were also down big.

The whole banking system has basically been torpedoed for two straight weeks.  The price action is very reminiscent of 2008.  What's scary here is there has been no obvious catalyst for the sell off.

IMO, somebody knows something and the shorts are sniffing blood.  The European banks look just as bad.  Unicredit teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, and I suppose our banks exposure to Europe could be the trigger for the horrific sell off we have seen in the banks over here.

Folks, we are so oversold it's ridiculous, and the fact that there are no buyers tells me something bad could very well be in the mix.

We all learned in 2008 that there were solid reasons why the market dropped down to 6K.   We just didn't know them at the time.  Looking back once we got the facts there were solid reasons as to why we got there. Just watch HBO's TBTF if you want to see how close we came to financial Armageddon.

I am afraid were are now once again at the tipping point.  It's time to stop trading and pray that we somehow find a way to get out of this.

Markets are all about confidence and for the past two weeks confidence has been completely lost.

I am hoping that the Fed can pull a rabbit out of the hat and stabilize things with their statement tomorrow.  I must admit I am not optimistic.

Protect yourself and let's all hope for a bounce.