Sunday, May 4, 2008

UBS is expected to announce $11 billion in writedowns

UBS may also layoff up to 8000 people.

Here is the link

The hits just keep on coming everybody. You cannot trust these banks right now.

From the Piece:

Winning Back Trust
``They've got to do something to win back the trust of shareholders,'' said Peter Thorne, an analyst at Helvea in London with an ``accumulate'' recommendation on the shares. ``I wouldn't be surprised if it's more'' than 8,000 layoffs, he said."

My Take:

Quarter by quarter the financials are slowly losing all credibility. How confident will the bottom callers be if the writedowns continue to be relentless over the next several quarters? There seems to be no end in sight as the announcements of losses keep coming. There is also no proof that the losses are close to being over.

The only proof that you have that they are near the bottom are the bank's CEO's promises. Remember how they keep telling you they don't need to raise capital and then a week later they announce thet they just raised capital?

This is the game on Wall St right now. Lie if you have to, just talk everyone into believing that everything is OK and the worst is behind us. This is a crisis of confidence folks. They are as scared as you are. The pump machine is in full force as they try to contain the fear.

If everything is so dam great then why did Buffet announce a $1.6 billion dollar writedown taken by Berkshire on Friday? This is the most conservative guy on Wall St. and even Buffet took losses on derivatives!

Just another warning guys and girls. Trust what you can SEE(fundamentals) not what you HEAR. The banks would simply open their books if everything was OK.

Microsoft also decided this weekend to pull the plug on acquiring Yahoo. Should be an interesting day in the markets tomorrow.


Jeff said...

A note to everyone:

I am going to start leaving links in the housing time bomb forumn of the latest breaking news. They will be left under the "Hot off the Press" category.

Let me know if you guys like this or if I can make it better.



Jeff said...

Also feel free to post any comments after you read them. I get some great ideas from everyone!

Jeff said...

Here is the Forum Link:

Minton Mckarkquey said...

You know, Jeff, I've said it before but I'll say it again... this is the best economic blog out there right now.

YOU'VE GOT TO KEEP PUNCHING THIS POINT HOME. Sorry for the caps, but there's a clear and consistent message in your posts which echoes EXACTLY what's happening in reality.

Let's analyze some points , in summary:
- "The Ponzi is bust" - you've illustrated again and again that this multi-decade system is bankrupt, literally and actually.
- "You can't keep printing money": but we are doing, and the price is exactly what you describe.
- "Those days are over," which most people don't understand because new epochs are not well received. The banking boom is not just done for this year... it's done forever.

Anyway, keep it up. I keep sending out this blog to everyone since your news sources and insight and totally unique right now. And you'd think these things would matter given it's an election year...

Jeff said...


Thanks a lot! I will continue to hammer away.

Countrywide is now blowing up.

There arre rumblings that Legg Mason is going to miss big this week because they are plugging holes in their money market funds which hold some CDO's.

Pension funds are a mess.

Some of the financials are about to blow up.

All we can do is spread the word. I agree with all your comments. Its alwasy great to get a different perspective.


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