Good Afternoon All!
Take a look at this excellent commentary from Ron Paul on the upcoming G-20 summit:
Quick Take:
Ron Paul makes some great points here. The dollar is strengthening because the world owns so much of it. I think this is really starting to bother the ROW. I would not be surprised at all if the world eventually develops another currency that's stable enough to rival the dollar.
Many countries are outraged by the fact that we created this economic crisis and our currency is now benefiting from it. AS the worldwide recession continues to deepen, countries will become more and more motivated in creating an alternative currency.
Inflation is starting to creep into my radar folks. The deflation story still has legs, but all of the bailouts and currency disruptions in the world markets are increasing my worries over inflation. Grabbing some gold as a hedge is starting to look like a very good idea.
8 comments:
As long as the world economy is going down we will have a deflationary environment. As soon as it will recover we will very probably see runaway inflation. At some point in time the US has to pay the piper for printing money like "On Sale" leaflets.
Anon
Yup.
Thats my thesis as well. The timing of it is the key. We still have a long way to go on many assets from a deflation standpoint. Housing is a perfect example.
Oil is getting interesting to me on the long side. Haven't picked up any DIG yet but I am getting close to pulling the trigger.
I can't do it until I see some type of bottoming though.
Iran was out pounding the oil drum today. They want a 1.5 million barrel production cut.
My thought here is OPEC won't go down without a fight. Given how bad this recession is it might not matter.
I will continue to watch.
Jeff - very interesting points all round here but especially your comment about oil. That's actually almost exactly what I was thinking this morning. One part of me doesn't think they'll allow oil to go any lower, but on the other hand it's working as a kind of stimulus so the pressure on oil producing countries from RoW must be massive...
Minton
Thanks
Exactly. This is a tough one to figure out. I guess thats why I need to see some sort of bottom in oil before I pick some up.
One thing I have learned with trading is catch a falling knife usually doen't work out to well!
I think the low 50's might hold here for awhile unless the economy is completely collapsing(which is entirely possible).
interesting opinion about economy ;)
"
Merrill chief sees severe global slowdown
By Greg Farrell in New York
wtorek lis 11 2008 09:45
The global economy is entering a slowdown of epic proportions, comparable to the Great Depression, John Thain, chairman and chief executive of Merrill Lynch, warned on Tuesday.
Speaking at the firm's annual banking and financial services conference, Mr Thain said that while he was cautiously optimistic about the future of the financial services industry, he was not at all optimistic about the near-term prospects of the US economy and global markets.
"Right now, the US economy is contracting very rapidly. We are looking at a period of global slowdown, and a global slowdown in economic activity that affects everyone who participates in global markets," he told investors. "This is not like 1987 or 1998 or 2001. The contraction going on is bigger than that. We will in fact look back to the 1929 period to see the kind of slowdown we're seeing now."
"
http://tinyurl.com/66526z
Teddy
Yikes!
You usually don't hear a bigtime pigmen say such things.
Their economist David Rosenberg must be getting in his ear. He has been pretty bearish the last few years.
He last research report was really bearish.
There are more and more Ron Paul supporters all over the world ;)
http://pl.youtube.com/user/farmanntv
Hans J. Lysglimt (from Norway) interviewed RP during conference in USA (2 weeks ago)
http://pl.youtube.com/watch?v=KTO3OquFJ8A
http://mises.org/events/107
And quite new blog of another supporter (from Poland) who recommended RP's book several weeks ago ;)
http://jkm-januszkorwinmikke.blogspot.com/
Teddy great stuff.
He seems to be the only guy in Washington that has a clue when it comes to economics.
I love listening to this guy. Keep em comin!
Post a Comment