Monday, January 19, 2009

RBS Pummeled as Nationalization Looms

Good Afternoon Folks!

Well, now we know why our financial stocks crumbled last week. RBS stock dropped a whopping 66% after the UK government announced it was forced to pump additional capital into the bank. The government now owns 70% of this piece of garbage:

"Gordon Brown on Monday unveiled a second bank rescue package including powers for the Bank of England to lend up to £50bn directly to businesses, as he accused the Royal Bank of Scotland of taking ”irresponsible risks” as the bank’s shares collapsed.

His comments came as RBS on Monday warned it could report an annual loss of up to £28bn, following the mis-timed acquisition of ABN Amro, the Dutch lender it acquired as part of a €71bn (£63bn) hostile break-up bid in 2007.

The outburst from Mr Brown came as the Treasury agreed to replace the £5bn in RBS preference shares held by the government since the October bailout with ordinary stock. This will increase government ownership to almost 70 per cent.

Shares in RBS fell 20.1p or nearly 60 per cent to 14.6p, valuing the bank’s capital at less than £6bn, as investors feared the bank may be fully nationalised.

The scheme, which will be detailed more fully by the end of February, will allow banks to buy government protection for eligible assets by paying a fee, which will be agreed case by case. The fee is most likely to be paid through the issue of preference shares to the government, but the Treasury said it would consider taking cash.

The banks will remain responsible for a “first loss” amount, similar to an excess in a normal insurance claim, and will also remain liable for about 10 per cent of the residual loss. The government insisted on this clause to make sure the banks had an incentive “to endeavour to keep losses to a minimum.”

The assets can be denominated in any currency. Those most likely to participate in the scheme are portfolios of commercial and residential property loans; structured credit assets, including certain asset-backed securities; and other corporate and leveraged loans. The scheme is expected to continue for at least five years.

Similar schemes are expected to be set up in other countries, and the government said it would hold discussions with its international partners to co-ordinate them. Details of a similar scheme being considered by the US government are expected to emerge in the coming days, while other countries are expected to follow."

My Take:

Now this is interesting folks. It appears that the UK really starting to get pissed as they slowly get their hands around exactly what these banks did. These institutions took more risks than Evil Knievel!

I listened to Gordon Brown's announcement this morning. He was not a happy camper. In my eyes the nationalization risks just rose substantially for many banks around the globe.

Everyone is beginning to realize that nationalization may be the only way to permanently clean up these banks and exterminate the cockroaches that created this mess. If this happens the common stock goes to zero folks. I expect a violent reaction to the downside in the financials in next week.

Now I see why Citi and BofA scrambled to get earnings out on Friday. They knew this disaster was about to be announced. Traders were obviously front running this news as they violently dumped the financials all last week. Don't you love how we the people are always the last to know?

IMO, Owning shares in any large bank right now is suicidal! I will be interesting to see what the markets do tomorrow. Its Obama's big day so they might give stocks a pass.

Stay Tuned!

12 comments:

Jeff said...

Batten down the hatches everyone!

Futures are down sharply. The EU banking crisis has really rocked the boat. Spain lost their AAA credit rating and it appears the Ukraine is going to default on itself.

The yields on the 10 year are rising despite the fear!

I am very concerned about the marketss this week.

Please be very careful.

ZMonet said...

Looks like from FAZ futures the financials are going to take a big hit today. Good call Jeff on hanging onto your FAZ.

Jeff said...

thanks Zmon

Yeah FAZ is over $74. State Street announced a $9 billion loss. The financials are a mess.

The TBT(short treasuries) I bought is way up too. Treasuries are taking a major dump. thats not good at all. Gold is up too.

The credit markets are starting to get very nervous. ITs going to be an interesting week.

Anonymous said...

Nice trades guys.

Besides the initial downtrend at the open, I'm sitting on hands. I did take a beating on a WFC long (dumb trade) but made it up shorting the /ES futures (thankfully).

Gold & USD are up pretty big. Strange indeed.

Jeff said...

Wow

What a day. I will have a post up later. Financials were pummeled.

James B said...

I'm getting really concerned on currency trades right now. The USD action we're seeing I think is largely due to the fear factor around a possible GBP/EUR crash, and people are piling into USD as a currency of last resort. There are fewer and fewer places to store value securely at this rate. Geez...

Jeff said...

Minton

The UK is toast aka Iceland. Jim Rogers says run away as fast as you can from the Sterling. He also said the UK os toast. Losses from their banks are 2x their GDP. Can you say default?

This is all really terrifying.

Take a a look at this piece from the Ambrose Prichards from The Telegraph:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/01/20/seriously_alarmed

James B said...

Jeff - interesting you should mention this. I was just on the phone to my brother who works in investment banking in the UK (one of the last people) and he confirmed it's facing total ruin.

This thought occurred to me when RBS announced their results - it's only thing for the US to absorb 'only' $40bn of debt, but for the UK economy to swallow this is nothing short of national bankruptcy.

If you don't mind, I'll post a link to your article on my blog (with credit), since I think the socialist government there has just made the first step to going over the edge. I'm still laughing that someone is called Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - that shows how depressing my day has been!

ZMonet said...

How do bank stocks not continue their downward plunge tomorrow? Is it really all that likely that Obama is going to come out with anything by tomorrow? I'm thinking that a lot of people were betting today that not only that banks were insolvent and that bank shares would eventually be heavily diluted, but also that there was no possibility of gov. intervention during the trading day. I'm wondering if there is more of the same tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Not that is worked for me this week but lots of Selling Into Strength on FAZ and SKF.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mflppg-moneyflow.html

Jeff said...

Minton

Go for it. Feel free to share this blog with anyone.

Interesting info about your friend in the UK. I always like hearing things from the front lines.

Jeff said...

JOey

Great info.

Tomorrow should be interesting. The ES is flat. IBM earnings weren't bad. Tough call tomorrow.