Thursday, February 5, 2009

Here We Go! Geithner Recovery Plan Rollout: Feb. 9th!

Whoo Boy!

Well its official:

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Monday will release his "comprehensive plan" to revitalize the financial markets, a Treasury spokesman said Thursday. Geithner is expected to explain how Treasury will employ the second half of a $700 billion bank bailout package as well as other program to shock the financial markets out of the recession. The plan is expected to include a variation of a mortgage mitigation proposal introduced by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairwoman Sheila Bair, according to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. Treasury officials are considering a variety of options for use of the funds, including capital injections and the creation of a bad bank that could be used to buy illiquid mortgage securities from struggling financial institutions."

My Take:

Fasten your seatbelts folks! LLLLLLLLLLLLeeetttss get ready to rumble!!!!

God, if this isn't a "sell the news" situation then I don't know what is. In fact, this is worse then a "buy the rumor sell the news" situation. Its actually a "sell the rumor AND sell the news" .

The price action I saw today was really pathetic. Confidence appears to be completely shot. Stocks were pumped incessantly today on CNBC. There was wild speculation on Bubblevision that the "mark to market" accounting rule was going to be lifted. The market barely blinked on the news. Some of the financials were able to crawl into positive territory.

Word then got out that the the Democrats were going to attempt to jam the stimulus through the Senate despite strong objections from across the aisle. This rumor actually turned out to be true. What a shocker! They are voting as I type. I don't know about you guys but I saw panic in DC today. Especially from the Democratic side. Obama's comments today say it all:

"RTTNews) - President Barack Obama warned Thursday that the nation is facing a recession so deep that, without action, it could turn into one that "we may not be able to reverse." The threat of an irreversible recession that could "linger for years" is very real, Obama said, urging Congress to pass his economic recovery act.

"By now, it's clear to everyone that we have inherited an economic crisis as deep and dire as any since the days of the Great Depression," Obama wrote. "What Americans expect from Washington is action that matches the urgency they feel in their daily lives -- action that's swift, bold and wise enough for us to climb out of this crisis," he added.He painted a bleak picture of the future of the economy without stimulus, predicting an additional 5 million jobs lost, and unemployment approaching 10 percent."

Quick Take:

Geeezzz...Obama makes me look like a "raging bull" when it comes to the economy. Does he actually believe that we may be facing a recession that we can never get out of? It sounds like our Prez needs to pop some Prozac! Please note that I realize that Obama is merely throwing a temper tantrum in order to get his pork filled stimulus package passed.

Folks, Monday is going to be a joke. I can see it now. The whole world will be watching as little "Turbo Timmy" steps up to the podium on Monday and begins selling our "miraculous" recovery plan that will save planet earth. I am sure the world will rejoice once he is finished!..Yeah right.

Its not gonna happen guys and gals. I gotta be blunt here so please cover your children's eyes. This is a fucking fiasco and everybody knows it. There is no recovery plan that can cure this.. WE DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY to fix what the banks have done. This is why Wall St cannot rally for more than a few hours each day. Stocks failed to regain yesterday's losses today despite all of the positive news/rumors that came out of Washington.

Can you imagine what the financials would have done 1-2 years ago if CNBC reported that the "mark to market" accounting rule was possibly going to be lifted? We would have seen a 10% bounce if not more over the next couple days. Not Anymore, in today's "digital casino" as one of my readers puts it, stocks could only manage a 100 point rally on the news even after learning that an economic stimulus could be approved on Friday.

If this isn't a lack of confidence then I don't know what is. By the way, if they attempt to suspend "mark to market" accounting and create less transparency the market is not going to rally. All of the traders know that this is exactly what Japan did. This change will do nothing but create more uncertainty. This is the last thing that the street needs.

Bottom Line:

Alrighty folks. I have been thinking about how I am going to play this. I added a short on the bounce late today. I leveraged up and bought some SDS calls. This is risky play but I think the jobs number is going to be awful tomorrow. On top of that, the sentiment on the street is terrible. I was really shocked that we didn't see a rocket ride based on the mark to market accounting rumor today. The market appears to be unable to rally.

I feel a change in sentiment in the air. The bulls have held 8000 by staying in denial and ignoring bad news. The bulls have historically rallied on "huge" rumors/interventions. The Feds have now handed them the two largest possible sticksaves out there with rumors of a "bad bank" and "changes in mark to market accounting" and stocks haven't budged. You need to start asking yourself: If all of these rumors/interventions can't take stocks higher than what will? We must take notice when the bulls fail to rally after getting two gifts like this.

Of course there are other reasons to be short.

Check out the jobless claims today:

"Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly jumped last week to a 26-year high, signaling a deepening deterioration in the labor market.

Initial jobless claims increased by 35,000 to 626,000 in the week ended Jan. 31, the highest level since October 1982, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The total number of people collecting benefits jumped to a record 4.788 million a week earlier.

Companies ranging from Macy's Inc. to PNC Financial Services Group Inc. are announcing job cuts as consumers and businesses rein in spending and that is likely to prompt even further pullbacks in coming weeks. The government is forecast to report tomorrow that the U.S. lost 540,000 jobs in January"


This was the worst jobless claims print since 1982. The economy is shredding jobs at an absolutely frightening pace as we continue to deleverage off of "bubble money". Without jobs this economy is dead with a capital D.

I kept on my SPG short and QQQQ long calls. Tech is working nicely right now so I will continue to use it as a hedge. I am not sure what I will do heading into Geithner's speech.

I am strongly leaning towards keeping on some shorts and Selling my long Q's which are up nicely. This is a risky play because Geithner's going to come out with some type of shock and awe move in an attempt to kickstart the markets.

I am leaning towards heading into this short because I simply think there are no more bullets left in the gun. I don't think the market is going to believe that Geithner's recovery plan will work. Its that simple. I have told you why it won't work in my previous posts.

When I think of the Fed/Treasury now I can't help but thinking of that story about "The little boy who cried wolf". The Fed continues to obloviate and flex their financial muscles as they fill our economy with promises of guarantees and unlimited liquidity. Yet despite their efforts, the market continues to drop like a rock. One of these days, the Treasury's going to cry "wolf" and the markets are going to ignore them and sell. I mean how many times can you believe someone's policies that have failed try after try after try?

Could Monday be the day this finally happens? It depends on what he says. His plan better get it right on the 9th. If its more garbage from the same playbook the market is going to punish him severely. If he plans on attempting to spend multiple trillions, the bond market is going to call him on it.

Lets all hope Timmy comes up with some new solutions. If its more of the same, we may see our first Black Monday of the new millennium.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

Great work as always. Giving the news, do you think the market might have a rally tomorrow to draw in suckers? Then it blows up on Monday as Geithner unveils his plans.

My prediction is that the market will sink in early trading due to the unemployment rate. Then it will rally into closing because bubblevision will pump the news as the ultimate market savior.

Jeff

Jeff said...

Jeff

Thanks

Thats a very possible scenario. CNBC was pumping big time today. I expect the same tomorrow. Some of Geithner's speech might leak out. Leisman has a way of getting the "scoop" from the Treasury.

I think a lot depends on the jobs #. If we see 700,000 or higher tomorrow its going to be ugly all day.

The filp side is if we come in at expectations of 500k or lower then we could see a violent bounce with Geithner coming on Monday.

The latter scenario will setup a nice shorting opportunity like you describe on Monday.

I really don't see what Geithner can say on Monday that will fire up the markets. HE has no money and very few options.

I mean every best case scenario has already been floated on Wall St via a rumor, and none if it excited the markets.

I think the Treasury is backed into a corner with very few options.

Lets see how it plays out.

Banditfist said...

Will be interesting to see what the bond market reaction is to Timmay's plan.
I would almost love a pullback on TBT. Still might add to my position.

Mark

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

No matter what the Fed does, I think it is too late to save the economy. As an analogy, we can look at a drug addict or an alcoholic. Sure that person can be saved. But he/she has to suffer for a period of time while the body flushing out the toxic.

Basically there is no easy or quick way out of this huge financial mess.

Jeff

Anonymous said...

Hi Jeff, great post. Do you remember last year when the financials rallied on their earnings releases? They said all the same: "We have crappy numbers but we put the shìt in the sewage tier. Just a matter of accounting. We are save. This is the kitchen sink quarter." Pure insanity. I thought the same today as you. The politicians want to change accounting and the financials can't rally hard??? Hmmm?

Your SRS babies were even in the green today.

Jeff said...

Mark

Oh yeah. The bond market is going to be interesting.

I have been looking at TBT as well. My fear is Timmy comes out and announces the Fed is going to buy the long end to keep rates down.

This could cause some short term pain. Long term that should be a great trade vecause the Fed blows up the treaury market if he goes that route.

Jeff said...

Jeff

I totally agree

I guess we'll find out if Geithner feels the same way. We will have a real good idea as to where Geithner stands on Monday.

Lets see is he has the nuts to cut off this alcoholic.

Jeff said...

John

thanks

Yup, its gonna be interesting. YOu gotta wonder if part of Geithner's plan includes nationalizing BofA and Citi.

The price action there has to make you think someone knows whats coming on Monday.

James B said...

You seriously need to write a book, Jeff... you're one of the last people I believe in.

Anonymous said...

What a crock of shit. Obama is saying that if "we" don't pass this stimulus, the world is going to end. That's exactly what the idiot politicians were saying in October with the first idiotic bailout. And what happened the instant it passed? The markets tanked. F*cking crooks - all of them.

James B said...

Joe - totally agree. The damned politicians have no clue whatsoever but unfortunately J6P has about as much of a clue as he has a job. These guys are going to spend us into disaster, this thing is so f'd up.

Jeff said...

Minton

Thanks for the kind words. I try!

Anyone have a guess on the jobs number tomorrow?

I have this feeling we may see a 700,000 plus number tomorrow. This whole thing is totally f'ucked up

Jeff said...

Joe

I can't stand this political bullshit either. Bush/Cheney used to play the same game.

Obama has sucked so far IMO. How many fricking tax cheats is this guy gonna put in his cabinet.

How ironic: He rapes the taxpayer and then hires people that don't pay taxes.

James B said...

My guess - based upon the theme this week - is that numbers will come in slightly better than hoped. Which, of course, means zip since the massaged numbers are so bad it's only fear-of-the-unknown that stops us thinking about the real ones. Early Halloween, everyone...

Jeff said...

One thought I had was we all know Obama wants his stimulus.

A hhorrible jobs print would certianly do the trick...lol

ZMonet said...

Well Jeff, it seems like your last thought is the one the futures market is going with...that the horrible print means greater/quicker stimulus. Too funny, good number = market responds up; bad number = market responds up. We'll see how this plays out during the day. I have to think there will be an initial push up on momentum and then a sell off on reality.

Jeff said...

ZMon

This is tunring into a bull orgy

My lord!

looks like they are buying the news!


Lets see how we close

Anonymous said...

Jeff, you turn out to be the perfect contrarian indicator. No offence. Hope you'll be consistent so I just do the opposite of your trading ideas and plans. ;-)

ZMonet said...

Never got the sell off on reality. I still made money playing both ends of FAS/FAZ. I won't be impressed unless the rally continues into next week and we hold today's highs into next week. I think this is setting up a great shorting opportunity in the next week, but we'll see.

Jeff said...

Zmon

Thats what I think but who knows? The market beats to its own drum.

I stayed short. Everything I have is in options and they are April's so I have time. Sold my Q's today. Couldn't resist after such a bounce.

Timmy can bend me over and abuse me hard again on Monday.

Santelli said the traders in the bond market are saying you gotta "Trade the Tarp!". I thought that was hilarious. What a a joke this has all become.