Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Obama+Geithner= ZERO TRANSPARENCY

Good Evening Folks!

Boom! Boom! Boom!.....Yup, you guessed it, that's my head slamming against my desk again. I waited 30 minutes before I started writing this post because I was afraid I was going to start ranting like a lunatic once again.

I am trying to turn over a new leaf and be a little more diplomatic here on The Housing Time Bomb, however, I am finding this task to be more difficult with each day as I listen to the same bull**** continue to flow out of Washington.

The stock market is going to plummet if Obama doesn't start leveling with the American people. These "campaign style" promises simply are not acceptable to investors anymore. Look at what the market did after he spoke late today:


Quick Take:

Ummmm....I don't think the market could have sent a more clear message. He continues to stick with his recovery plan that consists of of throwing money at the banks without accountability. Investors are increasingly questioning whether or not the plan will work because they can't see the #'s. There is no transparency. Private equity isn't coming back to the market until they know what they are buying folks. Its really that simple. Without private equity, the plan doesn't work.

Wall St knows this and are clearly calling his bluff by selling stocks when he says this plan will work. Obama is overplaying his hand here bigtime folks. The investing public obviously has zero confidence in what they are being told by Washington and Wall St.

Today's dog and pony show around the rescue plan and "serious" stress tests was a joke. Here is a summary of the details(if you can call them that) that were announced today:

"Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The government set a six-month deadline for the biggest 19 U.S. banks to raise any new capital deemed necessary after a mandatory review of their balance sheets.
The regulators will complete their so-called stress tests by the end of April, which will identify how much extra cushion each bank will need, the Treasury said today in Washington. Lenders will have six months to raise private capital or accept government funds and the conditions that come with it.

“While the vast majority of U.S. banking organizations have capital in excess of the amounts required to be considered well capitalized, the uncertain economic environment has eroded confidence in the amount and quality of capital held by some,” the Treasury said, announcing guidelines for new bank reviews."

Geithner also said nationalization is “the wrong strategy for the country and I don’t think it’s the necessary strategy.”

Losses will be projected under two economic scenarios. Under the “baseline” scenario, the U.S. economy will shrink 2 percent this year and expand 2.1 percent in 2010. The “alternative more adverse” set of projections has gross domestic product dropping by 3.3 percent this year, with a 0.5 percent expansion in 2010.

Today’s statement didn’t specify any potential limit on the amount of money involved. President Barack Obama late yesterday signaled that the administration will seek more money from Congress for the effort to break the back of the credit crisis."

My Take:

I highlighted the more ridiculous statements. Banks are well capitalized? HA! How many cash transfusions have we given to Bank of America and Sh*ttybank? The economy is going to grow 2% in 2010? DOUBLE HA! Good luck. Can I take the other side of that trade please?

Some of these banks better be well capitalized after getting a $25 billion donation from the taxpayer a few months ago.

These "stress tests" are another joke:

Something tells me the banks are more stressed out about what to order for lunch than they are about the dreaded Treasury "tests".

No one gets to see the results of these "tests"of course.

Question here: If these banks are so well capitalized then why can't we see the results of the stress tests? Investors would certianly buy the good financials if these results were made available to the public.

Bernanke refuses to do this because he claims it would force many banks to go under. I say so what! God forbid some of their banking buddies would have to go bankrupt. Guess what Ben, other banks would spring up to replace the old ones. Its happened many times in the past.

If the Treasury would just provide transparency I think the market would rocket. All investors are asking for is to know where they stand. You don't buy a car without driving it first and looking under the hood.

If the DC and Wall St continue to keep everyone in the dark, we are going to see the DOW at 3000 points a year from now.

Once again, the bankers have been given another gift at our cost.

Ken Lewis

The arrogance of this guy is beyond belief. Ken Lewis was bragging about the success of his "new stars" on Bloomberg today"

"Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis said Merrill Lynch & Co. and Countrywide Financial Corp., the acquisitions that some analysts say helped push down the bank’s share price, have been “stars” so far this year.

Lewis, speaking today in a Bloomberg Television interview from his Charlotte, North Carolina, headquarters, said Merrill will be “a thing of beauty” over the long term. Merrill, the New York-based securities firm, lost $15.8 billion in the fourth quarter."

Quick Take:

Is this guy delusional? If they are such stars Ken than why is your stock at $5 a share? How many of BofA employee 401k's did you destroy via your plummeting stock price in the process of acquiring these "shooting stars"?

Unbelieveable, do these people have a conscience? How on earth do people like Ken Lewis have the nerve to come out and speak such nonsense? If I was a CEO and my stock price was down 70+% for the year I would not be on TV at all. I would feel embarrased, guilty, and ashamed after causing my shareholders so much pain. I guess you actually need to have have feelings in order to think like this..

Ken, perhaps an apology to shareholders might be in order versus bragging about your Countrywide "Refi boom".

Bottom Line:

Obama continues to come out and act like nothing is wrong and everything is under control. Meanwhile behind the scenes, Rome continues to burn. The arrogance of this guy is beyond belief. Obama its to show your hand. Wall St is watching you play this game of "financial poker" and they KNOW you have don't even have a pair.

Wall St is going to continue and punish you if you fail to show them your hand. You promise to deliver details before each press conference and then proceed to come onstage and shoot blanks. You are losing the confidence of the American people each time you do this. These news conferences are turning into giant "yawnfests".

Are you all bark and no bite? If you are, Wall St is going to eat you alive.

Today the market told you that they are demanding TRANSPARENCY and nothing less.

If you continue to keep them in the dark, you are going to push this country into a depression.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

The government and the financial institutions will never tell the public the whole truth. Therefore I have little hope for any kind of transparency. We just have to live through this black hole or revolt.

Jeff

Jeff said...

Jeff

I am hoping the bond market will force it out of them. Thats about our only hope.

Yields rose sharply today despite a decline in stocks. Kepp an eye on the 10 year.

Debt spreads on AAA paper are beginning to unwind again. I will be updating this sometime this week.

Obama will be forced to puke it up if stocks continue to drop. This will be interesting to watch.

Anonymous said...

I think DJ will hit 6K something in the coming week(s). Thank god I transferred the retirement accounts into CD last summer. Phew! If I have not followed your blog daily, the fund would be decimated badly.

Let us know when you plan to "arm" yourself. Hope it doesn't get to that point where people have to carry firearms for protection.

Jeff

Jeff said...

Jeff

I am glad you got out.

I sit in cash as well. Trading account is flat as a board.

The volatility at these levels can sink a trading account. There is a violent battle to stay above the 2002 lows.

The next drop is to 600 on the S&P or about 6k on the DOW so your call could be right if we spiral down below 741 on the S&P.

Somtimes its best to stay out of the market. I will jump in when I can get a hold of whats going on. Right now I am in awe of what is happening.

Avl Guy said...

Jeff, I do understand that you bloggers are loathed to turn off the TV (go off-line) for a full 24-hrs becuz u feel obligated to blog on the day's events.
But you see the down-side of that commitment; you never get to take periodic mental or psychological break from the talking-heads and idiot journalist that torment you.

Consider taking 1 furlough every 3 weeks; it will reduce the head-banging dents in the drywall.

Jeff said...

Avl

Sirius has made it worse. I can't even get away from the market in the car anymore!!

I must have a dent in my forehead by now!

Banditfist said...

Come on! Admit it, you drove south on I95 at 2am on January 20th to get a front row seat.


How can you possibly separate the gov and the markets? They are quickly becoming one and the same.

Just wish that the REITs would have a come-to-Obama moment and I can cover my SRS.

Anonymous said...

Yep. Definitely a tough market to trade. I'm in long dated Puts and hedged with /ES futures. So I guess I'm net neutral.

Jeff said...

Bandit

Hotels in the Baltimore area were charging double on the 20th!

I wonder how many are still happy that they spent the money.

You are right on with the gov and wall st combining.

TRADE THE TARP baby!

Jeff said...

Joey

My thoughts are the same dude.

The bottom will definately fall out of this market eventually but I just don't know when.

I think you have a great strategy. PUTS are much cheaper then they were in Sept-NOv.

Alex said...

"You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We're doing what we can
But when you want money
for people with minds that hate
All I can tell you is brother you have to wait."

Alex

Jeff said...

Love it Alex

Made my first trade all week today. Shorted some SPG around $35.

Working so far

Bulls gotta be frustrated after giving up this mornings bounce

Anonymous said...

Bottom is falling out as we speak.

Regrettably I'm not sure what intervention the government can offer at this point to prop up markets. It's a freefall.