Before I get started with a few comments I BEG you to listen to David Rosenberg's appearance on Bubblevision today. It was perhaps the best explanation of what happens to an economy when a credit bubble collapses.
Everything David says here is backed up by facts and history. These are the two key points that Wall St loves to forget about as they try and lure you into buying equities.
One of the most striking points that I took from this video is the fact that our government has already spent more than twice what FDR did in The Great Depression. Yikes! That's pretty darn frightening when you think about it
He also explains that this is no average "10 months and out recession" that were common in the 70's, 80's, and '90's. This is a CRITICAL point in my view because most of the street has no clue what a consumer led recession looks like. Most of these analysts weren't even born yet when we last had one here in the US back in the '70's.
As a result, almost EVERY DAMN economist/analyst that I listen to in the financial news media continues to believe that this is your average "run of the mill" recession. They all think that we will be out of this recession by the end of the year. Many are predicting growth by the 4th quarter. That may happen because things fell off a cliff Q4 last year so it's very possible.
A question here for the "recovery" boys: What fundementals are out there to sustain this "recovery" once we get past the 4th quarter comparisons where the economy basically stopped? I haven't heard one logical answer from the "recovery" bulls on this one. FOLKS, HERE IS THE BOTTOM LINE: THIS WHOLE RECOVERY TALK BY Q4 IS A CROCK AND YOU ARE A FOOL IF YOU BELIEVE THIS!
Watch the tape. David does a hell of a lot better job then I do explaining why:
Great stuff eh? I would have loved to hear his thoughts around the currency issues and the risk of hyperinflation.
David obviously sees nothing but deflation ahead. If this is right, bonds could see a a huge rally. I am still on the fence here as I continue to worry about our solvency. However, David's thesis is solid as a rock and it could very well come to pass.
Basically we are in for one hell of a long road folks. The "Buy and hold" days are long gone. David believes we have at least another 8 years of pain and suffering as we crawl through this secular bear market.
I believe that its going to take longer than 18 years total(from 2000) to work through the excesses of this bubble because we foolishly created a second bubble(housing) right in the middle of it from 2003-2007 instead of simply letting the tech bubble deflate.
As a result, I believe we will have a lost generation before this is all said and done. I say this because we basically have to recover from two bubbles all at once. One is bad enough!
Will the bull be back? Of course it will someday. I also expect a few mini bull markets along the way as we work through this big ugly bear. One thing is for sure: The investing world will never be the same.
You are going to have to be much more active with your 401k in order to grow your nest egg properly. Diversification and nimbleness will be crucial as we navigate through this disaster. I am beginning to believe that once investors are burned once again as we break the lows, they may run to fixed income for a looong time(that is if it doesn't explode).
Portfolio's in the future will probably see 50% or more of assets in fixed income IMO. Stock exposure will become a much smaller piece of the pie. I think stocks will be considered "highly speculative" moving forward as the current generation licks their wounds after being burned multiple times by the market since 2000.
As a result, many financial planners and brokers will likely be forced to reduce their clients exposure to stocks. Can you imagine what this will do to the stock market as investment portfolio's make this transition? Ugly Ugly Ugly!
Be careful who you trust with your money with folks. Choosing your financial planner is one of the most important decisions of your life. Make sure you can trust them and if they have you 100% in equities right now run for the hills!
Lets talk a little bit about the market. We clearly broke through the 200 DMA on the S&P as the market went south by 2+% today. This is extremely bearish.
We are now sitting at some pretty important support levels. There is some decent downside resistance here around 880. A big move south tomorrow could force things to get ugly real fast.
Keep an eye on Alcoa tomorrow as earnings season begins. This is the first big name to report. Their CEO was fairly bullish based on a rebound in China so who knows they may surprise to the upside. Many of the big banks report next week. That should get really interesting.
Don't forget that we continue to sell billions and billions of treasuries throughout the next few weeks. We have a long end 10 year auction later this week. Keep a close eye on this one. The $35 billion 3 year auction went ok today. The bid to cover was decent(2.6 I believe) but the interest rate was a few points higher then what was expected. This tells you that investors are demanding yield as they watch our Ponzi spending game continue.
It should be an exciting few weeks as we watch all of this unfold. Fireworks and perhaps a Black Swan would not surprise to me.
I continue to hold onto the same positions. My current plays: BEARX(long term hold), Sept. SPY PUTS, GLD, SLV, SDS, and some old SRS that I bought at $85(ouch this one still hurts). I still hold onto that SRS to remind me that being stubborn and overconfident is a great way to end up in the poor house:) I think its always good to remember your mistakes. they always remind you that Mr. Market beats to its own drum.
I also own a few long spec biotechs. The rest(80%) is in cash and bonds.
Cash will be king if Rosenberg is right.