Saturday, October 17, 2009

Black Magic

Priceless!


36 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

Jeff,
I had seen that. Too bad nobody cares. With American Idol season 100 coming up why bother people with how they are getting screwed. I love that people will march against abortion, march against health care, and march against war but they cannot be moved to say anything about blatant rip offs of the public money. Not a political rant, but it drives me crazy all the useless stuff people get riled up about when their very livelyhood is being destroyed.

jeff said...

Get

Yeah i saw this a day or so ago as well but it's a must watch for anyone who missed it.

I share your frustrations. J6P still doesn't get it but I will continue to spread the word of this fraud until it's cleaned up(if ever).

CT-Hilltopper said...

America cares more about Balloon Boy and his whack job family than they do about this.

Things are getting better. people are getting more optimistic.

The economy is going to crash and burn while the sheeple are distracted by stupid crap like Balloon Boy

getyourselfconnected said...

Go Saints! Go Patriots! Steelers win and the Jets lose again. It is NFL nirvana!

CT-Hilltopper said...

Yes Get...the Patriots beat Our Sisters of Mercy Junior High!

What the hell happened to the Titans?

jeff said...

"America cares more about Balloon Boy and his whack job family than they do about this."

LOL CT

I watched that whole fiasco live as that baloon sailed around in the air.

what a bizarre story and a even more bizarre family. Looks like they are getting arrested.


Get

Ben throws for 400. Brady looked like a stud today. Had Welker in my fantasy league today. I whooped some butt!

Anonymous said...

"Jeff said...

our addiction to bubbles is probably as powerful a force as the housing tax credit when it comes to explaining the powerful reversal in home prices."

Powerful reversal - what powerful reversal???? For months now, you have been telling us, time and time again, that ALL SIGNS ARE NEGATIVE for housing - NOTHING had reversed.

Case shiller was showing a reversal and you denied it over and over and over. How pathetic

Dont fight the tape dude. CS was
showing a powerful reversal months ago, and yet you could not come clean and ADMIT IT!

You said you will be the first one to tell us when things turn around. Bullshit. Pure bullshit. When we first saw this months ago, the responsible thing would be to point out:

(a) it has reversed
(b) the reversal COULD be real
(c) the reversal COULD be govt manipulation.

And yet, you said nothing. No analysis of any single data point that does not conform to your permabearish outlook. Best to just ignore it, or spin it negatively - you are like the NAR but in reverse.

Let this be a lesson for you and your permabearishness. You ignored the turnaround because it did not support your thesis of all doom all the time. Is this thing real or is it government induced? I dont know, but I am certainly paing attention. Yet, when the real recovery comes, be it now, or 100 years from now, your permabearishness will tell you we "still have more to go".

So please spear us with your "im not a permabear" schpiel. Either report the facts as they come in or admit "im a permabear" so the innocent readers who are interested in reality will not be snookered into your permabear fantasies.

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

Dillon left out the part where Goldman bought the treasuries at the auctions then sold them back to the government. They then took the cash and pumped the futures market and floated the entire stock market higher (and their investments as well). Evey time the market attempted to correct - Goldman was there to stop it with more buying. This will of course keep on until they decide to stop at which time the market will correct (or perhaps collapse). Joe sixpack who bought into the meteoric rise will once again get hosed.

Anitolia said...

"Yet, when the real recovery comes, be it now, or 100 years from now, your permabearishness will tell you we "still have more to go"."

LOL isnt that the truth! Check out the "Boston Home Inventory" chart:

http://www.housingtracker.net/asking-prices/boston-massachusetts

The home inventory peaked in 2006. The vast majority of realists, acknowledged this by mid 2007. However the permadoomers could not accept this, and came up with theory after theory (e.g. shadow inventory, REO backlog) for why we hadnt yet seen the peak.

They now (mid-late) seem to be coming around, recognizing that even with this shadow stuff coming back, the peak was still 2006 for this cycle.

Better 3 years too late than never I guess :) Sadly, it will be the same thing here im sure...

jeff said...

Anon

LOL

You crack me up. Why all the anger?

If you think the housing story is over and the recovery has begun you are crazy IMO.

Based on your attacks something tells me you are missing a few marbles so I am not surprised.

Please continue and come back to tell me why I am such a fool.

I enjoy a nice chuckle when you stop by.

jeff said...

Anon #2

I agree.

Another liquidity bubble has been created. This time in stocks.

This all will end badly

jeff said...

Anitolia

I disagree but maybe you are right.

I think it depends on the area. Places like Vegas and Florida that dropped 50% probably are closer to the bottom.

the northeast and anything bought with a jumbo loan(over 420k) still has a ways to go because those loans are very difficult to qualify these days.

I guess we will see what happens.

Whenever I see lots of bullishness in the comments section its usually a sign that we are about to roll over once again..lol

Good luck to you.

Dave Narby said...

Makes you wonder when they'll finally get out the clown suits.

Anonymous said...

"Jeff said...

If you think the housing story is over and the recovery has begun you are crazy IMO."

Where the hell did I say that. I did say:

"Is this thing real or is it government induced? I dont know, but I am certainly paing attention."

Does that look like bullish optimism you?

Anonymous said...

Jeff, and angry Anon- I think Anon is just as frustrated as you are as to the market's actions. No-one could have predicted this is where the market would be trading today as the fundemental story that Jeff points out is very bearish. This is what happened in the 20 & 30's as well. Remember the old saying, "the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent" Yes, it is frustrating to those of us who feel that the bubble is just being reinflated rather then the market rising because the economy is truelly healing on it's own with out all the tricks. It is very hard to time the market, sometimes you will look like a fool and other times you will look like a genius. I personally am kicking myself for not deploying my sideline cash in March but am I the dummy? I dunno yet the story is not over yet. Good luck and think for yourself.

Anonymous said...

"Jeff said...

Whenever I see lots of bullishness in the comments section its usually a sign that we are about to roll over once again..lol"

Agree - good thing your comments are running about 10-1 on the bearish side!

Anonymous said...

Mad 'Max' Market ;)))

NASDAQ:
1300 (2003.02.14)
2800 (2007.10.12)
1300 (2009.03.06)
2200 (2009.10.19)

up ~115% 4.5 YEARS!
down ~55% 18 months
up ~70% 7.5 months

S&P:
830 (2003.02.14)
1550 (2007.10.12)
680 (2009.03.06)
1100 (2009.10.19)

up ~85% 4.5 YEARS!
down ~55% 18 months
up ~60% 7.5 months

DJ:
7900 (2003.02.14)
14100 (2007.10.12)
6600 (2009.03.06)
10100 (2009.10.19)

up ~80% 4.5 YEARS!
down ~55% 18 months
up ~55% 7.5 months

*dates are chosen arbitrary and numbers are roughly approximated (x10/x100, x5%)
*source: Google Finance flash chart

Jeff said...

"Jeff, and angry Anon- I think Anon is just as frustrated as you are as to the market's actions. No-one could have predicted this is where the market would be trading today as the fundemental story that Jeff points out is very bearish. This is what happened in the 20 & 30's as well. Remember the old saying, "the market can stay irrational longer then you can stay solvent"

Well Said Anon.

I think all of us are frustrated.

I remain bearish over the longer term. I have made money in bonds and the metals on this bounce.

Got burnt on the short side in March like most other bears.

Overall this market hasn't hurt my overall investments because I am very conservative.

My trading account got hurt in March but its only a small piece.

I am humbled by this crazy market and it does get very frustrating at times.

Jeff said...

"Agree - good thing your comments are running about 10-1 on the bearish side!"

Usually they are running at 20-1 on the bearish side so it's time to go short!

Jeff said...

"Mad 'Max' Market ;)))

NASDAQ:
1300 (2003.02.14)
2800 (2007.10.12)
1300 (2009.03.06)
2200 (2009.10.19"

Nice summary of this roller coaster.

Can you say bipolar?

What insanity. This is certianly a traders market!

I expect the volatility to continue!

Futes up again tonight

getyourselfconnected said...

"Anger, fear, aggression, the darkside they are"

Whatever, I am Frustrated too!

Anonymous said...

"Jeff said...

Usually they are running at 20-1 on the bearish side so it's time to go short!"

That was the bottom dude. When it goes from 10-1 bearish to 10-1 bullish like it was in 2004-2005 thats when its time to short.

Seriously, remember how bad it was in those days? Back then when you suggested that there even was such a thing as "a bubble" 10 cockeyed optimists appeared to tell you how wrong you were. Fools...

jeff said...

Anon

Yup

I agree. Seeing the same thing now as we did in 2004/2005. March was not the bottom IMO.

Dollar is getting pummeled once again tonight. Double dip is a high probability. Oil creeping up to $80 a barrell again.

Oil will once again start to cripple the consumer. The US dollar is the single biggest threat to the economy right now.

My point on the bull posts on here is usually there are zero bullish posts on this site.

I saw this one other time and that was right after the Bear Stearns rally last March.

The boo birds came out telling me how foolish I was for being bearish and we all know the rest of the story.

There is WAY too much optimism right now regarding the economy. Especdially with unemployment closing in on double digits.

the falling dollar is helping the markets for now. If we see an accelration on the falling dollar stocks will take a beating.

GL

Anonymous said...

"Jeff said...My point on the bull posts on here is usually there are zero bullish posts on this site."

Thats cause this site is permabears preaching to the choir!

No offense, but this site is like a religious site where they all believe in creationism. Cite mountains of evidence about evolution, and not a single one of them will ever ever change their views.

The realists see there is no point in posting here, and give up, leaving the doomers & creationists behind to wallow in their echo chamber for all eternity.

God knows why im still here :)

getyourselfconnected said...

Anon,
I would say we are not "perma bears" but more so realists. I am bullish on quite a few things, just not GS, JPM, and all the other junk stocks that have tripled in the last 6 months for no reason.

As far as equating the comments here as cult like on par with creationists, you have not been reading. Plenty of difference of opinion and alternate takes are written here. I think you are on to something about moving on.

Jeff said...

"The realists see there is no point in posting here, and give up, leaving the doomers & creationists behind to wallow in their echo chamber for all eternity.

God knows why im still here :)"

You guys crack me up. You keep coming back. Maybe you like watching train wrecks if I am so full of gloom and doom?

My posts do include opinions but they are also based on the news.

I find myself to be very much a realist. I got out of the DOW at 14k. I am doing far better then the ones who held all the way down to 6k and then back up to 10k.

Being bearish has saved my whole lifesavings. A realist would recognize that the problems that brought down the market in 2008 have not been fixed.

As a result I disagree with your deficnition of reality.

Being a bullish pumper worked well for 26 years from 1982 to 2008.

The ones who come out of this the best will be the ones that stay conservative and diversify their portfolio out of stocks.

If that means I am a doom and gloomer then so be it

Jeff said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Anon - I am a semi regular poster here, but I am posting anon so as to not out myself...

Just so you know, I see this site as more of escapism than reality. A guilty pleasure if you will.

There is a bit of an "adverse selection" problem with sites like this. It attracts only those who have bearish outlooks (like myself) while repelling those other more bullish outlooks.

Thus, I come here to grouse about this or that as I find there are plenty of others here to commiserate with. At the same time though, but I also am aware that this site is in no way representative of whats going on in the real world - I think alot of us know that.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

jeff said...

Anon

Hmmmm...I which poster you are..lol

Either way I am happy you are entertained enough on some level.

I will have something up tonight.

REPO disaster at the Fed.. ...Dollar collapse continues.

Being bearish seems pretty realistic to me at this point.

Best

Anonymous said...

Do we really need more regulation? LOL

http://tinyurl.com/yhco4ka

getyourselfconnected said...

Anon,
Where is this "real world"? The stock market? Every indicator I look at says things suck, though slightly less so than before. In what way is the items we sdiscuss not the real world?

Very interested in your reply.

Anonymous said...

Get - different anon here, but let me take a stab at it:

1. ABI - still only "less worse" but far off the bottom.

2. MBA index - likely hit bottom and trending slightly up for 6-7 months

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/St8GByw44MI/AAAAAAAAGmI/--FSNcvWg5w/s1600-h/MBAOct20.jpg

3. Housing starts - likely bottomed and now moving sideways

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/St2uJt3rPKI/AAAAAAAAGl4/ug31mWsc10g/s1600-h/HousingStartsSep2009.jpg

4. Case shiller - moving up on a seasonally and non seasonally adjusted basis.

5. Dow - no explanation necessary here.

6. Builder confidence - likely bottomed and now moving sideways

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Styb0j-aAjI/AAAAAAAAGlg/Cv4Yf6ulMTk/s1600-h/NAHBoct2009.jpg

7. PCE - likely bottomed - now moving sideways (even if cash 4 clunkers was removed)

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsSkVCdXDRI/AAAAAAAAGeM/pElkATcUjC0/s1600-h/PCEAugust.jpg

8. Existing home inventory - off its peak and moving lower for 1 year now.

blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsSkVCdXDRI/AAAAAAAAGeM/pElkATcUjC0/s1600-h

9. Capacity utilization - almost certainly bottomed:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Sthy3KlWvTI/AAAAAAAAGkk/aaSs4a1Y-8c/s1600-h/CapacityUtilizationSept.jpg

10. New inventory - significantly off its peak and moving lower

blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SsSkVCdXDRI/AAAAAAAAGeM/pElkATcUjC0/s1600-h

11. New claims - likely peaked and moving lower. In the past, this has been very reliably linked to the end of recessions:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/StcW5hOVRfI/AAAAAAAAGjc/9t6b9dzKZ58/s1600-h/WeeklyClaimsOct15.jpg

Please note, there are many many more - baltic dry, miles driven, vix, Ted/ A1/P2 - all these indicators are suggestive of a bottom. I could go on and on but you see the point yes.

Also, there are dozens and dozens of indicators that still look awful - CRE, continued claims, etc. etc.

HOWEVER

There was a time when EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THESE was clearly indicating that we were in major trouble. Back then it made sense to be a big time bear. Now some of them do and some of them dont. Thus, being as bearish now as you were then is simply whistling past the graveyard!

Oh and dont respond with "all those indicators are govt manufactured". Forgetting for a moment that bears love these indicators on the way down, and typically argue they are "flawed/manufactured on the way up", the claim this is manufactured is a separate argument alltogether. This may or may not be manufactured. This argument is about the indicators - the tape - the tape says what the tape says and im not going to fight the tape.

getyourselfconnected said...

Different Anon,
some of the items you listed show improvement, many others have flatlined and are indeed moving sideays. The Baltic Dry Index and train tonnage shipping are not indicating anything close to an uptick. Manufactured they are all not, but can you argue the housing numbers (being goosed by low end activity) is not wholly done by the FED (keeping rates low, buying MBS, buying nearly every mortagge since September, tac credit to buy, etc) and not organic activity? If you are, then that is not the real world. I agree, the world is not ending, and the data tells me that, but the data also says things are not going to get better (especially if you are out of work) for some time. My 2cents and I take full responsibility.

See we can debate like rational people.

Jeff said...

Guys

the way I see it this is a period where the bulkls and bears are wrong.

Nothing IMO has bottomed. Things are just less worse. Since when did that mean things have bottomed?

During your average recession since 1982 these were reliable indicators of a bottom.

There is plenty of data to say things have biottomed because the economy fell off a cliff last year.

I for one think this is a temporary plateau.

How temporary is anyones guess.

I am not particulary short or long here. Just diversified.

Going balls deep in either direction is a dangerous play.

It's all about capital preservation during times like these. Fighting the tape and going short is tough at these levels.

GL to the bulls and bears.

this isn't your average recession.

I think we will see a war here around the 10k area.

Anonymous said...

I agree, the world is not ending, and the data tells me that, but the data also says things are not going to get better (especially if you are out of work) for some time.

See - thats a reasonable opinion! Things are not getting worse, but they are not going to be getting better for some time. I could not agree more.

Then we have exhibit B

"Jeff said...

Nothing IMO has bottomed...I for one think this is a temporary plateau."

Note how there is not even the POSSIBILITY of bottom in his world! Does anyone doubt that whenever the true bottom is hit, be it now, back in March, or 25 years from now, jeff will be saying that?

Perma Bear

Anonymous said...

Jeff Said.
"Please continue and come back to tell me why I am such a fool..."

You are a fool Jeff.

Jeff Said.
"Nothing IMO has bottomed. Things are just less worse. Since when did that mean things have bottomed?"

Since the beginning of time Jeff.


Jeff Said.
"I find myself to be very much a realist. I got out of the DOW at 14k"

And you never got back in.


Jeff Said.
"Being a bullish pumper worked well for 26 years from 1982 to 2008."

And 2009 until the end of your life.



Jeff said.
"The ones who come out of this the best will be the ones that stay conservative and diversify their portfolio out of stocks."

The ones who came out the best are those who ignored everything you said from here til the end of the blog. The ones who didn't and who listened to you died with shotguns in their mouths.