Sunday, January 9, 2011

A Sad Day/Leading Economic Thinkers: Things Don't Look So Good

Before I get to the economy let me just share a couple of thoughts on yesterday's assassination attempt.

The shooter was obviously a complete nut job who was mentally ill.  What disgusted me today was how it's getting politicized.  This makes me sick. 

There is nothing to analyze here IMO and It's not a right or left issue:

A whack job lost it and went postal on a politician.  That's it.  Period.  We see this craziness all the time.  We saw it happen at Virginia Tech.  We saw it happen at Columbine. 

The only difference here is a politician was involved.  Unfortunately, both sides of the aisle now see an opportunity for blame.  I keep reading about how all of this was the Tea Partiers and Sarah Palin fault.

HA!  Gimme a break.  Did you see those You Tube videos this guy made?  This mental patient couldn't even write a complete sentence.   Who knows what was going on in his pea brain when he started firing.

Let's hope we see some positive changes as a result of this tragedy.  If there is any blame here it should be placed on the anger and hatred that the left and right consistently spew at each another.

It's OK to disagree with one another but it's slowly but surely gotten out of hand.  Media personalities like Hannity and Olbermann then make it worse as they  sensationalize this hate as they attempt to carry out their biased agendas.

This has to stop because there are mental patients out there with guns who don't know how to process the anger.  

I'll tell you what folks:  The moral/social crisis in this country is just as bad as the economic one. 

I say enough already!  The hating has to stop.

The country is a mess and the only way we ca turn this around is by working with one another.  Let's hope we can see a little more peace in DC.  Our future is in jeopardy and now is not the time to figure out who to blame all of this on on. 

Let's fix things first.  We can have the debate later.

Another Lost Decade?

I'll end with an excellent piece that summarizes a convention that featured the leading economic minds in the world.

Their conclusions on where things are headed are disturbing to say the least.  Have a read:

"DENVER (By Mark Felsenthal): To hear a number of prominent economists tell it, it doesn't look good for the U.S. economy, not this year, not in 10 years.
Leading thinkers in the dismal science speaking at an annual convention offered varying visions of U.S. economic decline, in the short, medium and long term. This year, the recovery may bog down as government stimulus measures dry up.

In the long run, the United States must face up to inevitably being overtaken by China as the world's largest economy. And it may have missed a chance to rein in its largest financial institutions, many of whom remain too big to fail and are getting bigger.

On the one hand, Harvard's Martin Feldstein said he believes the outlook for U.S. economic growth in 2011 is less sanguine than many believe.

First, the boost to growth from government spending will be drying up this year, he said. Renewal of expiring tax cuts is no more than a decision not to raise taxes, and the impact of one-year payroll tax cut is likely modest, he said.

"There's really not much help coming from fiscal policy in the year ahead," he said. Woes from the dire situations of state and local governments may actually be a drag on growth, he said.

Growth got a lift from a lower saving rate in 2010, but that probably will not last this year as households worried about an uncertain future return to paring back debt and socking more away, Feldstein added. Discouraging declines in home values mean there is less to save from, he said."

"People are worried, so there's a strong reason for precautionary saving," he said.

On the other hand, there is the race with China and the dynamic Asian economies, including India. Most estimates put the size of the Chinese economy on par with the United States by the early 2020s, said Dale Jorgenson, also of Harvard.
Jorgenson sees Asian emerging markets as the most dynamic in the world, eclipsing other emerging market contenders such as Brazil and Russia with steady growth over the next decade.

"The rise of developing Asia is going to accompany slower world economic growth," he said.

The United States will need to come to terms with the fact that its prevalence in the world is fated to come to an end, Jorgenson said. This will be difficult for many Americans to swallow and the United States should brace for social unrest amid blame over who was responsible for squandering global primacy, he said.

MIT's Simon Johnson put it more bluntly, saying the damage from the financial crisis and its aftermath have dealt U.S. prominence a permanent blow.

"The age of American predominance is over," he told a panel. "The (Chinese) Yuan will be the world's reserve currency within two decades."

Johnson said he believes the United States has failed to learn its lesson from the financial crisis and continues to implicitly back its largest financial institutions.

"I'm concerned about the excessive power of the largest global banks," he said. "Who are the government-sponsored enterprises now? It's the six biggest bank holding companies."

To be sure, Raghuram Rajan, a former IMF chief economist now with the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, could still envision an ongoing U.S. leadership role.

Nothing proceeds in a straight line, he said, and there are many pitfalls along the way even for dynamic Asian economies.

"I would say the age of American dominance may be nearing an end. But America as the biggest mover will be in place for a long time," he said.

(Reporting by Mark Felsenthal; Editing by Maureen Bavdek)"


Anonymous said...

Dear Jeff,

I like your blog and read it several times per week. Thanks.

Please let the facts come out on the AZ shootings before rushing to draw conclusions. Yes, the alleged shooter looks like a violent crazy. But maybe more facts will help make more sense of it. Blaming Palin or any media is ridiculous. We need more personal responsibility, not less.

I notice the debt clock has flipped to $14T since the last time I looked at your blog. That is a significant factor in all this mess!

On the problems in the economy and the future: it's the debt. Moreover, there are liabilities already in US law that aren't funded and aren't in the budget yet.

Hint: Entitlements are the drivers of the insolvent debt. Entitlements are uneconomic. Entitlements must be contained and reversed because the tax base can never cover all the entitlements and that conclusion is rock solid before Obamacare even hits the landscape. Further, anyone who believes Obamacare will be accretive to the US budget is insane.

I believe the progressives are more to blame than anyone else. I believe the progressives from both parties must be stopped to slow, let alone eliminate, the death spiral. Progressive greed for other’s money is feckless, endless and evil. Therein lies the root cause…

Jeff said...


Good point.

I wrote about it today because so much information got out but there are still many questions that need to be answered.

I will leave this topic alone for awhile.

COuldn't agree more with your economic thoughts. Thanks for sharing.

The baby boomers set this entitlement racket up expecting the youth to pay for it. Fiscally it was never going to work.

What a mess we have to clean up!

$14 trillion is a lot of money!

THanks for your thoughts. ALways love hearing from my readers.