The exposure of the New England "Cheat"riots for what they weren't in the Super Bowl was the biggest professional sports 'win' for me for 2008. On to another subject: Jeff, have you blogged about the alleged 'documented' drop in driving by Americans? If not, let me weigh now. I too wanna believe Americans will react logically, en masse, to curb excess gas consumption and that we can measure reductions in driving. I also wanna believe that marriage vows of "til death do us apart" are ironclad. But c’mon, how would any agency possibly have a solid mathematical handle on how many miles are actually driven by the 247 million automobiles in America? Can't the media and/or readers ask these questions? U wanna bet this was just a statistical extrapolation from some sample and one that invariably contains some major (feel good) fudging? What wasn’t reported was that FHWA has only 4000 automatic traffic recorders. The interstate system alone is over 46,000 miles in length. In total, the US has 5.7 million miles of paved roads highways, state roads, local avenues and boulevards, plus the dinky street from your cul-de sac to the ATM to the gas station. That's 1 recorder per every 1,425 miles.
Hence the fudging...uh, I mean statistical extrapolations. I googled a link to a 2008 Transportation Board study citing that “On average, the error of ...volumes estimates was around 5% for less variable roads and 8-9% for roads with increasing variability.” http://pubsindex.trb.org/document/view/default.asp?lbid=848178a So FHWA’s margin of error exceeds and may double the reported decline in usage. Garbage In, Garbage Out.
I think most folks are anxious for solutions either from ourselves, or the public or private sector. But let's not trumpet the unproven as 'fact'...not yet.
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6 comments:
The exposure of the New England "Cheat"riots for what they weren't in the Super Bowl was the biggest professional sports 'win' for me for 2008.
On to another subject: Jeff, have you blogged about the alleged 'documented' drop in driving by Americans? If not, let me weigh now. I too wanna believe Americans will react logically, en masse, to curb excess gas consumption and that we can measure reductions in driving. I also wanna believe that marriage vows of "til death do us apart" are ironclad. But c’mon, how would any agency possibly have a solid mathematical handle on how many miles are actually driven by the 247 million automobiles in America? Can't the media and/or readers ask these questions? U wanna bet this was just a statistical extrapolation from some sample and one that invariably contains some major (feel good) fudging? What wasn’t reported was that FHWA has only 4000 automatic traffic recorders. The interstate system alone is over 46,000 miles in length. In total, the US has 5.7 million miles of paved roads highways, state roads, local avenues and boulevards, plus the dinky street from your cul-de sac to the ATM to the gas station. That's 1 recorder per every 1,425 miles.
Hence the fudging...uh, I mean statistical extrapolations.
I googled a link to a 2008 Transportation Board study citing that “On average, the error of ...volumes estimates was around 5% for less variable roads and 8-9% for roads with increasing variability.” http://pubsindex.trb.org/document/view/default.asp?lbid=848178a
So FHWA’s margin of error exceeds and may double the reported decline in usage. Garbage In, Garbage Out.
I think most folks are anxious for solutions either from ourselves, or the public or private sector. But let's not trumpet the unproven as 'fact'...not yet.
avl
Adly, I don't think that Americans want to curb their driving habits. I think they are going to be forced to because they can't afford it.
It sounds to me based on your figures that they haven't accuratly looked at how many miles are driven by all of those cars.
I think as oil prices continue to rise these types of things will be more scrutinized.
Hopefully, we will reduce our addiction to auto's through the higher gas prices. Time will tell.
If oil goes to $200 a gallon then I am sure consumption will be more scrutinized by the gov't.
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