Saturday, December 13, 2008

8 Scary Predictions for 2009

Good Afternoon Folks!

I am going to keep it simple today. I found a great piece in Fortune today. Its contains 8 scary predictions for 2009 from 8 of the greatest economic minds that are out there. DOW 4000? 2 of them think its a distinct possibility.

Enjoy these thoughts from Bill Gross, Jim Rogers, and others.

Another nice read

Martin Hutchinson wrote a great commentary on how this economic collapse may feel worse than The Great Depression. He predicts that we could see a dram tic drop in our standard of living over the next several decades.

Enjoy the commentary!


ZMonet said...

"For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough."

Why does Roubini say "I" would do this and then apparently he is putting his own retirement money in the market? I'm not doubting that he thinks things will be bad, I'm just trying to understand his logic. I heard that he has commented that the market gives the best chance of return over the long haul, but wouldn't he put his own money in something less risky based on his predictions? Strange.

John Maynes said...

Roubini is an economist, not a trader. He lost a fortune beginning of the year by listening to himself and going short. So the bulls broke his neck and he gave up trading. Why should he care anyway? He is having real estate in NY and a safe highish income. He isn't affected at all by the downturn. Actually he's enjoying it as he can appear almost everyday on tv.

Jeff said...


He is just advising preservation of capital.

The fact that treasuries are paying 0 yield right now tells you that the smart money wants no part of the stock market.

I would guess he has a lot of money in there is well. Since he is now on TV like John suggests, I am sure he feels he has an obligation to not panic the masses when he is on CNBC by telling everyone to run to cash.

My guess is he has a hell of a lot more money in cash than he does in the market.