Friday, June 5, 2009

Stick to the Facts!

Just a quick note.

The "green shoots" talk continues, but the numbers don't lie.


The Unemployment rate soared to 9.4%. The U6 rate rose to a whopping 16.4%. That's right folks, almost 1 in 5 Americans either don't have a job, have given up looking, or are working part time. Depression anyone?


Consumer spending collapsed $15.7 billion which was more than twice the estimates in April:

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Borrowing by consumers fell by $15.7 billion in April as U.S. households continued to trim spending and put away their credit cards amid a severe recession.

The Federal Reserve said Friday the April decline was the second largest ever in dollar terms following March's drop of $16.6 billion. March's decline originally was reported as $11.1 billion, which had been the most on records dating to 1943.

The April decline was more than double the $6 billion drop that economists had expected. Analysts believe consumers will remain cautious as long as the unemployment rate keeps rising, which it did again in May."


Mortgage rates are rapidly rising as the bond market continues to throw a temper tantrum.

Bottom Line:

How in the hell is the economy going to grow when no one has a job, the consumer has put the credit card away, and the home buyer can no longer afford to buy a house as a result of rising rates?

Answer: It's not!

70% of our economy is dependant on the consumer and as you can see above, the consumer has had a heart attack.

Plug your ears and let the moronic talking heads on CNBC blab away about all of their "green shoots". The only shoots you will see if this continues are "lead shoots" as fellow Americans arm up and do what they have to do in order to feed their families.

Stocks cannot continue to "climb the wall of worry" when the wall is taller than the Empire State Building.


Stick with the facts and stay the hell away from this 40% rally.


ryan said...

They can keep driving this thing up if they want. It's an illusion, if anything. But it can happen.

Jeff said...


Anything can happen but at this point I think the smart money is out. This rise in yields in the short end of the bond market was a really bad sign. I will explain in my post tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

I've seen green shoots all week - chalk it up to booberry and blueberries. Green shoots expected until berry season ends.

Jeff said...


Berry season may end next week with the bond auctions.

Post up around 5:30!