Sunday, August 16, 2009

The New American Consumer

The tech ticker is really starting to grow on me. Take a listen to this great discussion around the changes in our consumer behaviour.

The US consumers ability to spend is dramatically shrinking as their access to credit continues to shrink. The shrinking consumer is also being pummeled by massive job losses and increased mortgage payments as a result of overspending on a McMansion during the housing bubble.

The housing ATM of course has also been cut off as housing values continue to fall at a record pace.

Its pretty tough to have a "V shaped" recovery when 3/4 of our economy is based on consumer growth.

13 comments:

CT-Hilltopper said...

You should go to Zero Hedge and read their post about the consumer.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/detailed-look-stratified-us-consumer

It's heartbreaking. It really is.

Jeff said...

CT

You seen the futures tonight?

ES is -7.

Nikkei and China are all down sharply. Setting up for an ugly start tomorrow morning.

CT-Hilltopper said...

I'm thinking of something we were speaking of a couple of nights ago and putting it together with something I read somewhere else.

Rememeber when we were talking about the sheeple starting to wake up. and people starting to get angry. Your original post was about health care, and you were stating that people were using the health care forum to dispel anger about other things.

I was just reading a post wbout the Trends guy, Celente. He said what we are seeing is the start of the Second American Revolution. The first two shots were downplayed by the Administration as something else ( the Tea Parties and the Fourth of July protests). What he is protesting is something else will set off the final explosion of the second American Revolution. He said it could be something like mandatory
h1n1 flu vaccines, it could be something else entirely.

Celeste said that the second revolution might be postponed by something like an act of war by out government, but it couldn't be stopped.

I'm starting to think he's right. There's so much anger out there.

I know I'm angry.

I've been lied to in every possible manner by people who are supposed to be acting in my best interest. I feel so violated.

I'm just afraid of what might be put in their place.

We're all hoping for something better, while in reality it could be something much, much worse.

There are worse people than lying thieving hypocrites that want all of our money for themselves.

The new regime could be lying thieving murdering psychopaths.

Jeff said...

CT

Just look at Hitler and Germany as an example of a potential new regime.

they got into power based on the sheeples anger over Weimar inflation.

I think there is definately an underground movement building in this country.

People will only suffer jobless for so long.

Everyone I know is taking heat at work as a result of sales falling.

The pressure where I work has become insane in the last few years.

I have stopped worrying about it because I am doing the best that I can. If thats not good enough then i guess I will need to find another job.

This country is collapsing and its a damn shame.

If we do see a revolution then life as we know it will no longer exist.

Get ready for change. Its right around the corner.

Tom said...

Hi Jeff

This is off topic but did you see Mole's sunday night post on March SPY 70 and 65 puts? I was wondering what you thought knowing you're conservative nature.
Thanks
Tom

jeff said...

Tom

I like Mole's call.

Obviously if you got into them Friday you would be feeling good here given the meltdown on the Es this morning.

I plan to do the same at some point.

I think long dated PUTS on the S&P are a good call.

I was hoping to see 10k on the DOW first before I made the same play.

Mole's TA is awesome and he thinks the time is now.

From the looks of the ES this morning it looks like he is right!

J

jeff said...

Hold onto your seats today folks.

ES is down 20 handles.

Lowe's came in and missed but other then that there really isn't a huge trigger for this selloff.

Sometimes these meltdowns come out of nowhere so this could be one of those times.

Hold on tight! We could have a rough ride today.

Peter said...

Loved it when Blodget was talking about consumers taking out loans on cars and Kristin said and "spinners." Another one of the American death signals. I am so frustrated seeing morons in debt up to the eyes and they are driving around with $10,000 worth of rims on their cars. And you can't even see them spinning because you are inside your own car!!!! You have to pull up to a mirror to check out your spinners baby! I add this to American Idol and Sex in the City as marking our "Roman Gladiators" point in time.

CT I have no clue what our country will look like, but we are the ones who did this to ourselves. I hold out hope that the true American spirit will prevail, and not something similar to Germany in the 30s. The real people who make this country run have a different character than the rest of the world. Or so I hope. I do know that we are living in a failed state and this is not working for anyone but the robber barons right now.

My concern is the inner cities where the communities have been made dependent on the government. What happens there when the government can't provide for them? Was this the Progressive plan from the beginning, keep the minorities dependent on the government and then use them as the building block of a new society? There was a popular left wing theory in the 60s about overthrowing the government by overwhelming it with dependents.

Either way we are in for some trying times. If we pick the right path the road is still going to be long and hard before we come out of it.

Peter said...

Just wanted to add an interesting picture. Who said Fascism isn't popular. This is the British Fascist Union meeting in 1939, not exactly a peaceful time in history.

Fascists.

Looks like an Obama campaign rally without the people crying and fainting.

jeff said...

post up 8-9

ART said...

sounds like TALF is a new word on the street.

CT-Hilltopper said...

In the recurring inflation vs. deflation arguments - have a look at this guys site.

He argues his point very well.

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/08/week-in-charts-buckle-heck-up.html

Jeff said...

CT

Yup

I am getting that feeling as well.

Nate does a nice job