Friday, September 4, 2009

Things that make you go Hmmmmm.....

Good afternoon folks!

Just a couple quick thoughts before we head into the holiday weekend.

Let's take a look at TNX today:


Now let's take a look at the dollar:


My Take:

All right now let me get this straight: We have gold holding its highs, treasuries majorly selling off, and the dollar collapsing after rising sharply earlier in the day.

Oh and of course stocks are also up! What a shocker!(sarcasm off).

Folks, the disconnect between whats going on in the economy and the stock market is at an all time high IMO. Unemployment rose to 9.7% today and the economy lost another 200,000+ jobs. How is this bullish?

The bulls say "things are improving". I say where? The greatest analogy I read today around this line of thinking is "after you slice the throat of a pig, the bleeding slows down after awhile".

The charts above tell me that we could be seeing a major flight out of the us dollar. In fact, we could be seeing a flight out of US assets all together based on the price action in bonds today. I was very curious to see if gold would hold its highs today and it has.

The Bottom Line

When the cats away the mice will play. I think the HFT's were able to take this casino higher today because everyone is in the process of heading to their favorite Labor Day spots.

My view has not changed. The fundamentals of this market are stunningly bad and worsening in my view. We should hit 10% unemployment by the end of the year. U-6 unemployment now sits at a stunning 16.8%. That's right folks, almost 1 out of 5 people are now out of work.

How is the economy going to grow when almost one fifth of the nation is not working?

The big boys are back from the beach next week. It will be interesting to see how they react to today's unemployment numbers and the big move in metals this week.

Keep an eye on gold, the US dollar, and bonds moving forward. If they keep acting like they did today, we could see a 5 alarm fire in no time in the stock market.

Well I am off for some R&R. Enjoy your Labor Day!

13 comments:

johndaniels said...

"after you slice the throat of a pig, the bleeding slows down after awhile".

haha good example.

yeah, pigs bleed just like us common folks do.

johndaniels said...

oh yeah, they also revised the unemployment number last month UPWARD to 49,000 jobs lost.

dont ya love how they do that?

Jeff said...

JD

Lol...Thanks, i liked that one too.

Yup

Pure numerical manipulation. They will stop at nothing to keep the sheeple in the dark.

getyourselfconnected said...

johndaniels,
glad you caught the huge revision that was ignored by the media.
Jeff,
nice collection of data. It has become weird out there, the C&C Music Factory song is right, hmmmm.

"C&C Music Factory is mastery and full of jams that has to be pumped till ya ears get sore"
couldn't help it!

Jeff said...

Get

It sure is.

I feel like I am living in the twilight zone.

At least its a holiday weekend. I will kill a few brain cells drinking cocktails this weekend as I try and forget our economic trainwreck.

CT-Hilltopper said...

I hope you guys had a great Labor Day.

I had to work, and I have a post up about the volume of traffic I saw going in and out of the malls and Wal-Mart (both are close to my office). It was like the old days when people went shopping because they had nothing better to do.

Karl has a couple of posts up, and Jesse as well. Put them together and they scare the socks off of you.

None of this is going to end well. Because of government interventions, it's going to end even worse than we had ever envisioned.

I can't believe I can sit here so calmly and type about all of this. When I try to talk to people I care about regarding all of this and the need to prepare, they flat out tell me that I'm nuts, and there's nothing to worry about.

Everything is winding down now. Within the next year to two years, it'll all be over. I don't know if they can even kick the can along that far. I believe each day we're getting closer to the day that China tells us to go pound sand, quite frankly. They've been quite methodical about their delivery, but the knock-out punch is coming.

FA in CA said...

What's going on in the stock market and the major swings we're seeing kinda reminds me of a wheel/tire on a car whose lugs are slowly loosening off their wheel studs.

If you've ever witnessed a wheel coming off a vehicle's car in real time, it ain't pretty.

I think we're running on the last 2 lug nuts. 1 of the remaining 2 is about to come off. The other 3 are gone.

Meanwhile the clueless driver (which equates to 85% of the general population) just keeps driving even though the steering wheel is starting to get major vibrational feedback.

I've got a bad, bad feeling about all of this...


*

Jeff said...

FA and CA

Right there with you.

Futures ramped last night but didn't follow through this morning.

Dollar is getting mauled. Gold and silver are surging once again.

There is some type of sentimental shift going on but I haven't figure it out exactly what it is.

BAck with a post tonight. Took some holiday time over Labor day.

J

flipdippy said...

Jeff...

Lots of failures in CRE here.

Babalu and Blue Sea Grill at the powerplant are going under.

Also, heard on the news [forget the name of the site offhand] the west side development that is currently 16 buildings which was going to be demolished and turned into mixed office/retail/condos has been killed because of finance problems. Going to be a big parking lot instead of a new downtown area...not sure why it's getting no press. Trying to figure out who's taking the loss here, since they're still going ahead with the demolition.

flipdippy said...

http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/stories/2009/09/07/story3.html

on the superblock

Jeff said...

FLip

I heard about Babalu.

I heard the owner had to close either one of the Ruth Chris's in the city or Babalu. 1 of the 3 had to go.

Also heard the
Ritz Carleton condo complex is a disaster.

Only 20 out of 100 units have sold.

that project must be in deep trouble as well.

Legg Mason only took 14 floors in their new building versus the 28 they had originally promised.

CRE in Baltimore is a mess.

Thanks for the heads up

CT-Hilltopper said...

It's looking worse every day.

I see a huge deflationary spiral heading our way.

Did you see those consumer credit numbers? And the revisions?

I don't think there's any way to step back from the abyss now.

Jeff said...

CT

YEah

I am going to try aqnd get to it tonight. -$21 billion...Yikes!

Work is going crazy so I haven't had the time to put into the blog.