Monday, October 5, 2009

Sorry Folks

Just a quick note to let everyone know that I am sick as a dog. I apologize for my absense. And uhhnh..no.... I haven't decided to hole up in a bunker with guns and gold:) (not yet anyway).

I may be away for a few more days depending on how I feel. There hasn't been to much to discuss recently anyway.

The recent move in Gold is an interesting one. We are back up near the recent highs of around 1020 or so.

There are rumors swirling out of England that oil may no longer be priced in the US Dollars.

It's becoming increasingly obvious that the world continues to slowly but steadily lose confidence in the US dollar. The Fed has no problem with this as long as its controlled because it helps them in a variety of ways. They want reflation/inflation because it helps asset prices hold. It's also been pretty bullish for the market....For now that is. That will change if oil gets back up to $140.

At the same time, the consumer is creating tremendous deflationary forces on the US economy as they lose their jobs and their wages decline or stay flat. U-6 unemployment is now a staggering 17% folks.

The unemployment rate for young workers is now closing in on 50%! Although the market moved nicely higher today, the market has been pretty choppy lately.

The recent move higher in equities appears to be as a result of the falling dollar combined with fund managers that are forced to chase prices here in order to keep up with their rivals.

The bulls also expect to see strong GDP growth in Q3 and Q4(I tend to agree) because the comparables from last year are going to be pretty easy to beat.

The question you need to ask yourself here is has the market already priced this in? Could this be a sell the news event when the topline of these companies remain flat or declining while profits increase?

Another question you need to ask is has the "cash for clunkers" and the "first time home buyer rebates" taken some growth out of the economy for the second half of the year. Could we see surprises on the downside?

I am leaning towards mildly strong growth heading into the end of the year because the financial system almost came to a halt last year. This kept everyone including businesses and consumers on the sidelines.

That's about it for me tonight kids. I need some ZZZ's.

7 comments:

johndaniels said...

hey jeff

surprised to see you so bullish.. the market trend must be convicing you? i think we'll be in perpetual hiatus no matter what is said; the government is simply unbelievable, and the traders will keep the market volatility low, especially with the goldman plunge protection keeping the floor in, IMHO.. check out drudge; they announce the arabs, china, russia, et al are dumping the buck in 9 years, for oil.

Jeff said...

JD

By no means bullish. I just think they will be able to hold this house of cards together throughout the year.

Remember, we saw 8% drops in GDP the second half of last year. this was unprecedented.

I think we roll over heading into 2010.

I have no longs right now other then hedges in my portfolios.

Mainly in Silver, Gold, and still short treasuries(this one hurts for now but This sucker eventually will blow).

2010 will not be pretty.

Anonymous said...

Jeff -

here are a couple juicy links to check out if you've not seen them before:

a.j billig auction results including price paid(baltimore):

http://www.ajbillig.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=31

Alex cooper auctioneers, same idea:

http://realestate.alexcooper.com/sold-real-estate/#featured|2|50||1

getyourselfconnected said...

Jeff,
Hang in there! My sinus infection is just now on the way out (hopefully). Plus it seems theer are quiye a few bugs (not swine flu) making the rounds.

Minton Mckarkquey said...

Feel better, Jeff! Everyone's got the bug right now so drink lots of water and get the Zzzs...

Anonymous said...

http://tinyurl.com/ldkafv

Jeff said...

Thanks All!

Feeling better.

Getting lots of sleep and looking forward to getting back to writing.