Friday, November 19, 2010

TBTF=Dead Money

It was a quiet day on Wall St today which is surprising because Op-Ex usually creates a lot of volatility.

I had commented earlier in the week that the market looked fatigued, and today had the same feel to it.  I think everyone at this point is looking forward to eating some turkey and taking some time off.

The stress of our economic collapse has worn people out.  I think this is why shows like "Dancing with the Stars" and "Jersey Shore"  have gotten so popular.   People just want to want to watch "mind rot" on TV by the end of the day because the stress of everyday life leaves them with very little left in the tank emotionally.

Watching "Pauly D" scream "the cabs are here" on the "Jersey Shore"  is a perfect escape from reality that is badly needed as Rome burns:



I must admit that I find myself watching the same stuff at this point.  After all, who wants to turn on the news night after night and listen to how economically depressed our nation is?  

I used to be a political news junkie until I realized there was no difference between out two parties. 

Not anymore, I'll pass.  Maybe I'll watch this stuff again in a generation or two when this fraud is finally cleaned up.

As for the markets I wanted to put up the TBTF banking stocks.  Talk about dead money:

Here is BofA(the ugliest chart of them all):


The rest of them don't look much better:

Citi:


JP Morgan:


Wells Fargo:


These stocks have continually been ignored during our recent 17% rally.  In fact, they have been dead money since May.

It's rare to see the market rally this hard without the financials participating.  

Thank god for the magic of QE2!

Anyway, I think it's something to take notice of and it tells me that this foreclosuregate issue isn't over.  Wall St has completely ignored this bunch for a reason.

Folks, the banks will never recover for decades.  I would put the odds at greater than 50% that they even survive this crisis.  They are broke, their balance sheets are shattered, and people look at houses right now the same way they do when they see a girl with a herpes outbreak.

The game is over in housing and Wall St knows it.  They have moved on.

It appears the next pump job is emerging markets.  I must have heard the word "China" 300 times on CNBC today. 

The street quickly moves on once bubbles burst.  If it wasn't for the government, the TBTF banks would be BK by now, and housing would be down 50% or more in most markets.

It's still going to happen.  All the government has done is delayed the pain.  Wall St is now desperately looking to create another bubble.

The problem is they are running out of places to blow them.  They have already blown stock, commodity, and bond bubbles in the past year as the Fed keeps rates at zero in an attempt to catch a Hail Mary and save the economy.

I don't see how this game of extend and pretend lasts much longer because they are running out of sectors to pump. 

Turkey day can't come fast enough for me. 

J

6 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

We all ned a break!

Tell me if this grabs you:
Prologue
Look, I never set out to make "the device".

I was a kid in second grade with a new set of colored pencils. One day I sat down and started drawing. This led to the first schematics of the machine I imagined. It all made sense at the time, very useful, and I even thought it was possible. I was in second grade!

Don't ask me if I had a vision. I was not visited by aliens. No God whispered in my ear. I was just doodling and something appeared from no where. If I had it to do over, I would have drawn a fucking rainbow or a pony.

But I didn't.

Jeff said...

Get

Yeah. The blogosphere is eerily quiet. Everyone is tired and confused.

Interesting comment. What's the device? Securitizations?

Anonymous said...

fatigue is a good word for it.. i kinda thought it was like a "hangover", but both mean the same. the bump up in silver perked things up though.

Jeff said...

Anon

Yeah the whole silver/JP Morgan thing is getting interesting.

I sold some a few weeks ago at 25 but still have some.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

getyourselfconnected said...

I totally missed the Jersey Shore clip! Too funny you know that one!

Jeff said...

Get

Was at a wedding last weekend and at 2AM there were about 20 of us wrapping up the night.

My friend was trying to get everyone together because none of us drove.

He made the mistake od screraming "cabs are hea". Within 10 seconds all 20 of us were all screaming it.

Needles to say it worked and we got home:)